WNBA · Finalupdated 11:13 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

LVA expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.22, POR 4.58

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:50 UTC

LVA 88 – POR 80

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, POR = Portland Fire.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 11 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying POR

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 32 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 19 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Stephanie Talbot · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 3 actual

Portland Fireplaying LVA

Bridget Carleton · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Carla Leite · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 13 actual

Emily Engstler · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Megan DiLeo · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Sarah Ashlee Barker · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 11:13 UTC

Who is out

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

May not play Wilson · right leg · LVA

Unlikely to play Evans · left leg · LVA

May not play Samuelson · left middle finger · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 19 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 11 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 4.8 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Stephanie Talbot · points + rebounds + assists 10.5 → 3 · 7.5 below the line · played 16.8 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Chelsea Gray · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.3 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under —

Jewell Loyd · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 32 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.69

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Emily Engstler · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.98

Sarah Ashlee Barker · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.2 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.15, Under —

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 13 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.64, Under 2.15

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs LVA · last 3 games · LVA leads · POR record 0–3 · average score 84.0–97.0 · POR has lost by 13 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · POR 83 at LVA 98POR lost

9 Jul · LVA 88 at POR 80POR lost

11 Jun · LVA 105 at POR 89POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 9, expected total 175.5 (Thu 01:12 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 9.5, expected total 174.5 (Fri 00:50 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 55

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 15 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 24 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 27 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 358 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 395 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 510 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 403 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 416 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 802 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 712 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 791 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 793 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 793 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 795 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1162 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1162 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1162 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.