WNBA · Finalupdated 11:13 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: SEA 5.75, ATL 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 22:47 UTC

SEA 78 – ATL 89

Final · 2 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 2 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

R. Howard · Over 18.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.23 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.23 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.23 · Our price was 8.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Thu 16:09 UTC); latest 1.74 at Pinnacle (Thu 23:49 UTC). The 17.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.55 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

F. Johnson · Under 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 2.22Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

R. Howard · Over 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.08 · last price before start 1.93Won +1.08 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying ATL

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 4 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Atlanta Dreamplaying SEA

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 22 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 18 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 19 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 11:13 UTC

Who is out

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 18 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 109 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 3 picks won2 won, 1 lost · +1.31 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.0% higher than the last before the start

Flau'jae Johnson · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.3 min

Pick: Under 2.5 at 2.22 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 19 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.5 min

Pick: Over 18.5 at 2.23 → Won +1.23 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Natisha Hiedeman · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.85

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Angel Reese · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 32.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Dominique Malonga · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs SEA · last 16 games · ATL leads · ATL record 8–8 · average score 81.3–80.1 · ATL has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · SEA 89 at ATL 98ATL won

9 Jul · SEA 78 at ATL 89ATL won

27 Jun · ATL 90 at SEA 105ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.3 points · 31.7 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

ATL gives up 84.3 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−2.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 11, expected total 169 (Thu 01:12 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 170.5 (Thu 22:47 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Rhyne Howard · O 3.5 rebounds+108value_edge_pct +13.86 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Flau'jae Johnson · U 2.5 assists+122value_edge_pct +8.74 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Rhyne Howard · O 18.5 points+123value_edge_pct +7.72 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTSWIN +1.23ubet +123 → close −113 · CLV +8.2¢ · bet_clv:97076 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · actual 19 · 34.5 min · startedHoward cleared the line with efficient scoring on elevated volume (22% usage, 60% TS%), converting 6-of-14 from the field and 4-of-11 from three while playing a full 34 minutes without foul trouble (4 PF). The modest 19-point finish reflected solid shot-making rather than a hot night, but proved just enough to cash the tight 18.5 number.

Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 REBWIN +1.08ubet +108 → close −108 · CLV +3.8¢ · bet_clv:97075 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.7% · actual 4 · 34.5 min · startedHoward's 4 rebounds cleared the 3.5 line despite modest usage (22%) and a balanced offensive role, confirming her recent L10 average of 4.3 boards was the more reliable benchmark than the 3.4 L5 dip that the market appeared to price in.

Flau'jae Johnson Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close +122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:97074 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-09T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.0% · unexplained · actual 5 · 29.3 min · startedJohnson doubled the target with 5 assists in 29 minutes, benefiting from increased offensive load (25% usage) and floor time that extended beyond typical role constraints. The under's vulnerability was exposed by her playmaking upside in a game where she operated as a primary ball-handler rather than a complementary scorer.

Data fetches · 47

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 13 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 23 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 24 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 29 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 30 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 106 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 363 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 553 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 564 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 635 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 736 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 637 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 663 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 780 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 808 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 971 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 978 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.