WNBA · Finalupdated 10:12 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

LAS expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 177 points · odds to win: CHI 1.97, LAS 1.88

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:42 UTC

CHI 87 – LAS 102

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Ogwumike · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.60Won +0.74 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.74 · Our price was 5.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.62 by FanDuel (Fri 05:25 UTC); latest 1.86 at DraftKings (Sat 01:43 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.05 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying LAS

Courtney Vandersloot · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 15 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 15 actual

Los Angeles Sparksplaying CHI

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 17 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 17 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 15 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 10:12 UTC

Who is out

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 17 days off before this game · LAS had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 90 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Plum out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.74 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.0% higher than the last before the start

Nneka Ogwumike · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.4 min

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.74 → Won +0.74 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Ariel Atkins · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 28.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 15 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Courtney Vandersloot · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.03

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 26.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.97

Dearica Hamby · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 30 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.97

Sydney Taylor · points 16.5 → 15 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs CHI · last 16 games · CHI leads · LAS record 4–12 · average score 80.6–85.4 · LAS has lost by 4.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · LAS 88 at CHI 95LAS lost

17 Jul · LAS 82 at CHI 96LAS lost

10 Jul · CHI 87 at LAS 102LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.2+4.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 1, expected total 180.5 (Fri 04:24 UTC) and later LAS expected to win by 1, expected total 177 (Sat 00:42 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Nneka Ogwumike · O 2.5 assists−135value_edge_pct +3.09 · kelly 1.05u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Nneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −135 → close −166 · CLV +5.0¢ · bet_clv:101553 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.2% · actual 5 · 33.4 min · startedOgwumike's high usage rate (26%) and 33 minutes of floor time facilitated the over, as she operated as a primary playmaker alongside her scoring load, dishing 5 assists on efficient 9-16 shooting.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 175 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 176 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 336 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 487 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 596 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 618 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 732 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 848 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 851 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1005 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.