WNBA · Finalupdated 10:12 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

DAL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.30, TOR 3.74

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:09 UTC

DAL 108 – TOR 95

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

M. Conde · Under 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.06 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.06 · Our price was 8.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.79 by DraftKings (Fri 03:53 UTC); latest 1.83 at Caesars (Fri 23:10 UTC). The line moved from 9.5 to 11.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying TOR

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Awak Kuier · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 13 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 34 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying DAL

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 18 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 25 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 34 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → no final stat available

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 10:12 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 9 days off before this game · TOR had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 118 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 8.9% higher than the last before the start

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 34.8 min

Pick: Under 9.5 at 2.06 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

10 other players with a posted line

Laura Juskaite · points 8.5 → 25 · 16.5 above the line · played 36.4 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 34 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Paige Bueckers · points 21.5 → 34 · 12.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Marina Mabrey · points 21.5 → 34 · 12.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Awak Kuier · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Arike Ogunbowale · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.71

Jessica Shepard · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 40 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Isabelle Harrison · points 13.5 → 18 · 4.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.86

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Nyara Sabally · points 11.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs DAL · last 3 games · DAL leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 86.3–97.0 · TOR has lost by 10.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Aug · TOR 88 at DAL 94TOR lost

10 Jul · DAL 108 at TOR 95TOR lost

5 Jul · DAL 89 at TOR 76TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7, expected total 180 (Fri 05:55 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 8, expected total 178.5 (Fri 22:09 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Maria Conde · U 9.5 points+106value_edge_pct +9.74 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Maria Conde Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +106 → close −135 · CLV +8.9¢ · bet_clv:102539 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 34.8 min · startedConde's 12 points came on efficient shooting (5-9 FG, 2-4 3PT) despite modest usage, and she logged a game-high 35 minutes, giving her more scoring opportunities than the under-9.5 line anticipated.

Data fetches · 52

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 16 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 106 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 130 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 340 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 509 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 692 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 244 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 760 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 561 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 612 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 828 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 840 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 842 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 879 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 898 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 897 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.