WNBA · Finalupdated 10:12 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

GSV expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 153.5 points · odds to win: GSV 1.38, CON 3.18

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:09 UTC

GSV 79 – CON 64

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying CON

Cecilia Zandalasini · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Gabby Williams · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → no final stat available

Janelle Salaun · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Kayla Thornton · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 2 actual

Veronica Burton · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Connecticut Sunplaying GSV

Charlisse Leger-Walker · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Kennedy Burke · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 6 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 12 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 10:12 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 73 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

9 other players with a posted line

Kennedy Burke · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.3 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.74

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 13 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 6 · 6.5 below the line · played 32 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Veronica Burton · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 33 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 24.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 27 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.98

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → no final stat available · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs GSV · last 6 games · GSV leads · CON record 1–5 · average score 68.8–81.7 · CON has lost by 12.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Aug · GSV 89 at CON 64CON lost

10 Jul · GSV 79 at CON 64CON lost

25 May · CON 70 at GSV 97CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.7 points · 32.3 rebounds · 18.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.5% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 13.4 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.7 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.5 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 7.5, expected total 154 (Fri 02:52 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 5.5, expected total 153.5 (Fri 22:09 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 46

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 39 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 55 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 64 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 67 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 73 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 168 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 133 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 328 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 764 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 664 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 667 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 687 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 697 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 710 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 748 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.