WNBA · Finalupdated 09:26 UTC

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 174.5 points · odds to win: NYL 2.51, MIN 1.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 05:47 UTC

NYL 85 – MIN 90

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

C. Williams · Over 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.69Won +0.93 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.93 · Our price was 7.3% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.78 by FanDuel (Fri 21:39 UTC); latest 2.22 at Caesars (Sat 16:33 UTC). The 5.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

6 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 6 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying MIN

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 2 actual

Minnesota Lynxplaying NYL

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 12 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 3 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 23 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 09:26 UTC

Who is out

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 12 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 63 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.93 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.3% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked

Courtney Williams · rebounds 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 36.2 min

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.93 → Won +0.93 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Breanna Stewart · 3-pointers 0.5 → 2 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.51, Under 2.44

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 28.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Olivia Miles · points 17.5 → 23 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.80

Kayla McBride · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 33 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.11, Under 1.68

Natasha Howard · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · MIN record 11–12 · average score 79.8–83.4 · MIN has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87MIN lost

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75MIN lost

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81MIN lost

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90MIN won

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 4.5, expected total 174.5 (Sat 01:43 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 05:47 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Courtney Williams · O 4.5 rebounds−108value_edge_pct +7.53 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Courtney Williams Under 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −170 → close −220 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:107887 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 65.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 36.2 min · startedWilliams hit 2-of-3 from three despite poor overall efficiency (5-17 FG, 35% TS), getting to the line only once and relying on perimeter shooting to generate her 12 points in 36 minutes. The sharp model underestimated her three-point volume on a night when she attempted only 17 total shots but took 3 threes—a 17.6% three-point rate well above her typical usage pattern.

Courtney Williams Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.93ubet −108 → close −145 · CLV +7.3¢ · bet_clv:107888 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · actual 12 · 36.2 min · startedWilliams crashed the glass relentlessly despite poor shooting (5-17 FG), pulling down 12 rebounds across 36 minutes to clear the 4.5 line by a comfortable margin. Her volume rebounding work compensated for inefficient offensive production, making the over a clean winner.

Data fetches · 37

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 43 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 46 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 49 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 141 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 146 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 149 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 104 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 112 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1377 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1362 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1548 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1398 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1410 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1560 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1601 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.