WNBA · Finalupdated 09:30 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 168.5 points · odds to win: PHO 3.76, LVA 1.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 20:38 UTC

PHO 58 – LVA 106

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Loyd · Under 2.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.49Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.78 · Our price was 11.1% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.48 by FanDuel (Sat 03:15 UTC); latest 1.50 at BetOnline.ag (Sat 21:56 UTC). The line moved from 1.5 to 2.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

4 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 4 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LVA

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 7 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 9 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Las Vegas Acesplaying PHO

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 09:30 UTC

Who is out

Carter · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 16:30 UTC) · 12, 11 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 17 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 47 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carter out (Wed 16:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.78 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 11.1% higher than the last before the start

4 other players with a posted line

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 9 · 11.5 below the line · played 29 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 7 · 7.5 below the line · played 28.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Valeriane Ayayi · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.7 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.10

Jewell Loyd · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.58, Under 1.47

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs PHO · last 25 games · LVA leads · LVA record 22–3 · average score 92.2–80.2 · LVA has won by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · LVA 100 at PHO 82LVA won

11 Jul · PHO 58 at LVA 106LVA won

17 Jun · LVA 86 at PHO 76LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 9.5, expected total 172 (Sat 02:44 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 8, expected total 168.5 (Sat 20:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Jewell Loyd · U 2.5 threes−128value_edge_pct +11.86 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Jewell Loyd Under 2.5 3PMWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −205 · CLV +11.1¢ · bet_clv:109765 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.8% · actual 2 · 28.2 min · startedLoyd connected on just 2-of-6 from three, a modest 33% clip that fell short of her season average, while her 14% usage rate kept her shot volume constrained in a blowout win where Seattle's lead limited shot attempts.

Data fetches · 32

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 14 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 15 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 23 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 122 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 147 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 250 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 561 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 699 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 716 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 801 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 824 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 830 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.