WNBA · Finalupdated 08:41 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 10 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: CHI 4.51, DAL 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:36 UTC

CHI 91 – DAL 96

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying DAL

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 18 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 12 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 15 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Dallas Wingsplaying CHI

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 17 actual

Awak Kuier · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 19 actual

Paige Bueckers · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 22 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 08:41 UTC

Who is out

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 17 days off before this game · DAL had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 117 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Awak Kuier · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 7.9 min · no final price

Azura Stevens · points 12.5 → 18 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.8 min · no final price

Sydney Taylor · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.9 min · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 15.5 → 19 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.3 min · no final price

Courtney Vandersloot · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 19.9 min · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.4 min · no final price

Azzi Fudd · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.6 min · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 21.5 → 22 · 0.5 above the line · played 36 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs CHI · last 16 games · CHI leads · DAL record 5–11 · average score 85.6–90.3 · DAL has lost by 4.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Jul · CHI 91 at DAL 96DAL won

20 Jun · CHI 92 at DAL 93DAL won

20 May · DAL 99 at CHI 89DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 44 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 48 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 59 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 118 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 178 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 402 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6004 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6011 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6012 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.