WNBA · Finalupdated 08:42 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

No game odds posted yet

IND 109 – LVA 75

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Young · Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.83Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15 · Our price was 8.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Loyd · Under 2.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.44Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

5 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying LVA

No player list for IND.

Las Vegas Acesplaying IND

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 24.5 → 20 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 28.5 → 19 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 08:42 UTC

Who is out

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Clark · likely to play · back · IND

Evans · likely to play · left leg · LVA

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 67 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.22 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 10.6% higher than the last before the start · 3 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked

Jewell Loyd · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.8 min

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.78 → Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Jackie Young · points + rebounds + assists 28.5 → 19 · 9.5 below the line · played 31.9 min

Pick: Over 28.5 at 2.15 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

3 other players with a posted line

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.8 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 20 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs IND · last 24 games · LVA leads · LVA record 17–7 · average score 86.0–82.0 · LVA has won by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94LVA won

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99LVA lost

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102LVA won

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84LVA won

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75LVA lost

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Jewell Loyd · U 2.5 threes−128value_edge_pct +12.24 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Jackie Young · O 28.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +11.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −147 → close −162 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:117063 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 27.8 min · startedLoyd went 0-for-3 from three despite 28 minutes of play, a sharp departure from her 2.0 L10 and L5 averages; her 13% usage rate was season-low territory, and she finished a team-worst -30 in a blowout loss that limited her offensive rhythm.

Jewell Loyd Under 2.5 3PMWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −225 · CLV +13.1¢ · bet_clv:117064 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.0% · actual 0 · 27.8 min · startedLoyd went 0-for-3 from deep on just 13% usage, settling into a complementary role rather than hunting threes in a game where Seattle's offense stalled (52% TS%). The under-2.5 line held easily as she took only 28 minutes and deferred shot creation.

Jackie Young Over 28.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −120 · CLV +8.0¢ · bet_clv:117062 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 19 · 31.9 min · startedYoung's low usage rate (16%) and limited field-goal attempts (8 FG) kept her well short of the Over despite efficient shooting, as the Las Vegas offense distributed possessions elsewhere in a blowout loss (-17).

Data fetches · 34

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 83 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 85 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 89 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 99 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 102 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 103 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 236 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 243 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 35 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6012 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.