WNBA · Finalupdated 19:37 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 11 · both teams together expected to score about 170 points · odds to win: PHO 5.78, MIN 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 23:52 UTC

PHO 100 – MIN 104

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

N. Howard · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.54 · last price before start 2.54Won +1.54 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.54 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.9 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

N. Coffey · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.83 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying MIN

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 19 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 26 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 4 actual

Minnesota Lynxplaying PHO

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 8 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 37 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 7 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 33 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 19:37 UTC

Who is out

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Collier · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 33, 33 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Mack · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Sun 22:10 UTC) · 27, 22 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 38 days off before this game · MIN had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 114 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Collier out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mack out (Sun 22:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +2.37 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Natasha Howard · assists 2.5 → 7 · 4.5 above the line · played 34.6 min

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.54 → Won +1.54 per 1 staked

Nia Brodie · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.9 min

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.83 → Won +0.83 per 1 staked

6 other players with a posted line

Kayla McBride · points 16.5 → 37 · 20.5 above the line · played 35 min · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 19.5 → 33 · 13.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Valeriane Ayayi · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 17.5 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 12.5 → 19 · 6.5 above the line · played 36.6 min · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 15.5 → 8 · 7.5 below the line · played 35.4 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 19.5 → 26 · 6.5 above the line · played 32.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs PHO · last 26 games · MIN leads · MIN record 20–6 · average score 87.5–79.3 · MIN has won by 8.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Jul · PHO 100 at MIN 104MIN won

1 Jun · MIN 111 at PHO 77MIN won

12 May · MIN 88 at PHO 84MIN won

28 Sep · MIN 81 at PHO 86MIN lost

26 Sep · MIN 76 at PHO 84MIN lost

23 Sep · PHO 89 at MIN 83MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 12.5, expected total 168.5 (Mon 01:40 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 11, expected total 170 (Mon 23:52 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Natasha Howard · O 2.5 assists+154value_edge_pct +11.78 · kelly 1.90u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Nia Coffey · U 2.5 assists−120value_edge_pct +6.22 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Nia Coffey Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −120 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:120973 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 0 · 29.9 min · startedCoffey's assist total collapsed despite playing 30 minutes because her usage rate plummeted to 6%—well below her season norms—limiting her playmaking opportunities in a game where she touched the ball infrequently. The sharp fair value of 41.22% was prescient; she finished with zero assists, validating the contrarian under against a bloated 60% recent hit rate.

Natasha Howard Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.54ubet +154 → close +154 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:120972 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.0% · actual 7 · 34.6 min · startedHoward's 7 assists easily cleared the 2.5 line thanks to 35 minutes of run and elevated ball-handling usage—she logged 23% usage despite modest 13 points, translating playmaking volume that the under-leaning market underestimated.

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 36 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 54 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 111 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 111 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 144 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 151 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 94 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 108 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 278 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 976 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1103 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 278 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 697 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 698 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.