WNBA · Finalupdated 15:50 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

WAS expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 171.5 points · odds to win: WAS 1.79, TOR 2.08

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 21:48 UTC

WAS 79 – TOR 62

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying TOR

Georgia Amoore · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

Kiki Iriafen · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 25 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 15 actual

Shakira Austin · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Sonia Citron · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 2 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying WAS

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 15 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 8 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 13 actual

What could go wrong

updated 15:50 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 107 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 33.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Sonia Citron · points 17.5 → 2 · 15.5 below the line · played 31 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 30 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.71, Under —

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 15 · 6.5 above the line · played 23.2 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 25 · 10.5 above the line · played 28.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Marina Mabrey · points 23.5 → 8 · 15.5 below the line · played 30.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.79

Georgia Amoore · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.8 min · BetRivers odds: Over 2.12, Under —

Isabelle Harrison · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Nyara Sabally · points 10.5 → 13 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Laura Juskaite · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 24.7 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.95

Shakira Austin · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs WAS · last 4 games · WAS leads · TOR record 0–4 · average score 73.5–81.5 · TOR has lost by 8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Aug · TOR 82 at WAS 93TOR lost

14 Jul · WAS 79 at TOR 62TOR lost

12 Jun · TOR 85 at WAS 86TOR lost

8 May · WAS 68 at TOR 65TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 170.5 (Mon 16:14 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 2, expected total 171.5 (Tue 21:48 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 52

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 72 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 88 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 201 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 202 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 205 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 166 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 240 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 391 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 412 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 415 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 440 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 460 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 935 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 800 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 842 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 849 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 883 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 921 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 926 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1105 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1117 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1190 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1260 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.