WNBA · Finalupdated 16:51 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

CHI expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 171 points · odds to win: SEA 2.15, CHI 1.72

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 06:37 UTC

SEA 90 – CHI 95

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Cloud · Over 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.82Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.82 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.77 by FanDuel (Tue 16:44 UTC); latest 2.20 at BetRivers (Wed 15:48 UTC). The line moved from 3.5 to 4.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.60 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying CHI

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 14 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 16 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 25 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 6 actual

Chicago Skyplaying SEA

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 17 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · Out · right knee (knee)

points 14.5 → no final stat available

What could go wrong

updated 16:51 UTC

Who is out

Cardoso · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 23:10 UTC) · 33, 26 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 10 days off before this game · CHI had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Cardoso out (Fri 23:10 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Magbegor out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Natasha Cloud · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 30 min

Pick: Over 3.5 at 1.82 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

9 other players with a posted line

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → 25 · 11.5 above the line · played 31.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.84

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 6 · 9.5 below the line · played 30.5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Azura Stevens · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.72

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Courtney Vandersloot · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 20 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.93

Awa Fam · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 31 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Sydney Taylor · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Dominique Malonga · points 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → no final stat available · FanDuel odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs SEA · last 16 games · SEA leads · CHI record 7–9 · average score 81.9–85.1 · CHI has lost by 3.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

16 Aug · CHI 82 at SEA 80CHI won

10 Aug · CHI 88 at SEA 97CHI lost

15 Jul · SEA 90 at CHI 95CHI won

30 Aug · CHI 69 at SEA 79CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 2, expected total 171 (Tue 23:50 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 1.5, expected total 171 (Wed 06:37 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Natasha Cloud · O 3.5 rebounds−122value_edge_pct +5.32 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Natasha Cloud Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:126765 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · unexplained · actual 2 · 30.0 min · startedCloud's elite scoring efficiency (85% TS, 5-6 FT) kept her on the floor for 30 minutes, but her 16% usage rate and guard-heavy role limited rebounding opportunities—she grabbed just 2 boards despite the healthy minutes, well short of the 3.5 threshold.

Data fetches · 49

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 90 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 110 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 123 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 133 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 143 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 145 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 166 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 264 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 272 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 225 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 370 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 634 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 941 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 719 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 726 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 729 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 946 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 953 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 969 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.