WNBA · Finalupdated 16:49 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

ATL expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: ATL 1.25, TOR 4.24

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:13 UTC

ATL 111 – TOR 92

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

L. Juskaite · Over 10.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15 · Our price was 5.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.88 by FanDuel (Thu 05:49 UTC); latest 1.93 at Caesars (Fri 23:14 UTC). The line moved from 10.5 to 9.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.50 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying TOR

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 18 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 23 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 18 actual

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 24 actual

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 10 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying ATL

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 13 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 26 actual

Nyara Sabally · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 16 actual

What could go wrong

updated 16:49 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 147 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.4% higher than the last before the start

Laura Juskaite · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.8 min

Pick: Over 10.5 at 2.15 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

10 other players with a posted line

Naz Hillmon · points 9.5 → 24 · 14.5 above the line · played 25 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Jordin Canada · points 11.5 → 18 · 6.5 above the line · played 33 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Rhyne Howard · points 19.5 → 10 · 9.5 below the line · played 31.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Angel Reese · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 33 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.74

Nyara Sabally · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 21 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 30.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.78, Under —

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Marina Mabrey · points 22.5 → 26 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.72

Isabelle Harrison · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.05

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs ATL · last 4 games · ATL leads · TOR record 0–4 · average score 87.8–103.5 · TOR has lost by 15.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

10 Aug · TOR 95 at ATL 107TOR lost

17 Jul · ATL 111 at TOR 92TOR lost

22 Jun · TOR 87 at ATL 94TOR lost

14 Jun · ATL 102 at TOR 77TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−3.0 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 183 (Fri 00:13 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 9.5, expected total 180 (Fri 22:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Laura Juskaite · O 10.5 points+115value_edge_pct +6.93 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Laura Juskaite Over 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −108 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:134343 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedJuskaite fell short despite solid efficiency (50% TS on 20% usage) because she simply didn't generate enough volume—4-of-8 shooting wasn't enough to clear 10.5 when she needed 11, and the team's game flow limited her scoring opportunities in 28 minutes.

Data fetches · 52

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 25 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 31 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 41 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 46 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 48 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 86 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 101 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 88 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 480 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 494 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 501 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 678 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 753 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 774 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 777 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.