WNBA · Finalupdated 16:48 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

PHO expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 163 points · odds to win: CON 2.54, PHO 1.55

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:46 UTC

CON 96 – PHO 83

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

B. Griner · Under 6.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.82 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.18 by Pinnacle (Fri 05:50 UTC); latest 2.14 at Pinnacle (Sat 01:47 UTC). The 5.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.20 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying PHO

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 6 actual

Charlisse Leger-Walker · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 26 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 6 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying CON

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 21 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 6 actual

What could go wrong

updated 16:48 UTC

Who is out

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 7, 23 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Linskens · likely to play · right knee · PHO

Unlikely to play Mack · left foot · PHO

May not play Whitcomb · left knee · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 9 days off before this game · PHO had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Morrow out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.82 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Brittney Griner · rebounds 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.8 min

Pick: Under 6.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 28 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 29.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 11.5 → 6 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.1 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.5 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Noemie Brochant · points 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.1 min · Caesars odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 21 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs CON · last 16 games · CON leads · PHO record 5–11 · average score 74.0–80.6 · PHO has lost by 6.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · PHO 72 at CON 75PHO lost

19 Jul · CON 63 at PHO 72PHO won

17 Jul · CON 96 at PHO 83PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 01:45 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 4, expected total 163 (Sat 00:46 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Brittney Griner · U 6.5 rebounds−122value_edge_pct +3.93 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Brittney Griner Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:136200 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · actual 6 · 25.8 min · startedGriner grabbed exactly 6 rebounds in just 26 minutes, staying at the line rather than dominating the glass due to limited floor time and modest usage (26%) in a blowout where Phoenix didn't need her to crash the boards heavily.

Data fetches · 43

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 73 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 76 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 79 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 85 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 106 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 160 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 175 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 350 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 353 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 624 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 550 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 575 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 586 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 926 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1205 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 955 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1001 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1064 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1157 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.