WNBA · Jul 17 gameAll props Full sheet

Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever

FinalSEA 107 – IND 110Page updated 15:54 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

All 1 saved picks graded.

Better-price comparison unavailable.

Saved picks

1Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 2 availability alerts

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available

Out Mair · earlier listed as available

No playing-time estimates are available.

Monique BillingsOver 5.5 rebounds

LostActual 5

Posted odds1.99Details

Why this pick?

This selection appears on the published card. A player-specific explanation is not supplied in this saved record.

Investigate Monique’s rebounds

Price evidence

The multi-book price comparison is unavailable in this view.

Posted odds: 1.99. Last price before tip: 1.65.

Recorded result: −1.00 per 1 staked.

No completed pre-tip price re-check is recorded here.

First recorded: 2.14 at Pinnacle, Fri 05:50 UTC. Latest included: 1.99 at Pinnacle, Fri 23:14 UTC. The 6.5 line held.

Stake and record policy

The published pick carries a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. Results/Ledger grades its eligible CORE signals at a flat 1 unit; that population can include more signals than this game’s card.

No completed pre-tip price re-check recorded for these picks.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available · Thu 00:00 UTC · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available · Thu 01:15 UTC · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Players and minutes6 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Seattle Storm

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 16 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 28 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 16 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 15 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Indiana Fever

Lexie Hull · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 2 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

IND expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: SEA 4.23, IND 1.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Fri 22:13 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 15:54 UTC

Who is out

Boston · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 32, 30 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 64 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Boston out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Magbegor out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 10.4% higher than the last before the start

6 other players with a posted line

Jade Melbourne · points 8.5 → 15 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.7 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.89

Lexie Hull · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 13.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Dominique Malonga · points 16.5 → 28 · 11.5 above the line · played 29.3 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Awa Fam · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.6 min · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

IND vs SEA · last 16 games · IND leads · IND record 9–7 · average score 83.6–84.7 · IND has lost by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · IND 105 at SEA 95IND won

17 Jul · SEA 107 at IND 110IND won

17 May · SEA 78 at IND 89IND won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 9, expected total 175 (Fri 01:14 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 8.5, expected total 176.5 (Fri 22:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Monique Billings · O 5.5 rebounds−101value_edge_pct +13.77 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Monique Billings Over 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −101 → close −154 · CLV +10.4¢ · bet_clv:133367 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 30.8 min · startedBillings fell one rebound short despite solid efficiency and 31 minutes played; limited offensive opportunities at 13% usage kept her from generating the extra board needed to clear the over.

Data fetches · 38

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 26 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 120 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 134 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 144 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 118 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 489 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 788 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1093 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 893 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 959 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1243 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1033 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1038 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1098 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.