WNBA · Finalupdated 15:35 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 11.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: CHI 5.20, ATL 1.19

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 18:36 UTC

CHI 91 – ATL 93

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

A. Reese · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 2.10Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.10 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying ATL

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 20 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Gabriela Jaquez · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 2 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 15 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 7 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 18 actual

Atlanta Dreamplaying CHI

Allisha Gray · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 29 actual

Angel Reese · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Brionna Jones · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Jordin Canada · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Naz Hillmon · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Rhyne Howard · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 11 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:35 UTC

Who is out

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 38 days off before this game · ATL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 121 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start

Angel Reese · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.3 min

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.10 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

11 other players with a posted line

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 20 · 8.5 above the line · played 29.8 min · no final price

Gabriela Jaquez · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 14.7 min · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 29 · 10.5 above the line · played 34.9 min · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 33.9 min · no final price

Courtney Vandersloot · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 21.3 min · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 11 · 7.5 below the line · played 34.7 min · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Sydney Taylor · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 12.5 → 15 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.8 min · no final price

Brionna Jones · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 15.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs CHI · last 18 games · ATL leads · ATL record 13–5 · average score 84.8–76.1 · ATL has won by 8.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Sep · CHI 81 at ATL 106ATL won

19 Jul · CHI 91 at ATL 93ATL won

9 Jun · ATL 82 at CHI 75ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Angel Reese · O 2.5 assists+110value_edge_pct +10.88 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Angel Reese Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +110 → close +110 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:147533 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · unexplained · actual 1 · 20.3 min · started

Data fetches · 56

sds history (h2h)ok · 35 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 97 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 123 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 139 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 140 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 141 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 108 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 121 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 133 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 137 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 149 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 206 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 438 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 207 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.