WNBA · Finalupdated 15:34 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

PHO expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 163.5 points · odds to win: CON 2.52, PHO 1.56

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:37 UTC

CON 63 – PHO 72

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying PHO

Aaliyah Edwards · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 0 actual

Brittney Griner · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 19 actual

Charlisse Leger-Walker · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

Diamond Miller · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Kennedy Burke · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Leila Lacan · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 7 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 12 actual

Phoenix Mercuryplaying CON

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 7 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 18 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:34 UTC

Who is out

Carter · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 16:30 UTC) · 12, 11 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Whitcomb · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Rivers · earlier listed as available (changed Sun 18:15 UTC) · 5, 34 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 38 days off before this game · PHO had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 126 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carter out (Wed 16:30 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Whitcomb out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Rivers out (Sun 18:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

10 other players with a posted line

Aaliyah Edwards · points 10.5 → 0 · 10.5 below the line · played 4.6 min · no final price

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → 19 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 7 · 7.5 below the line · played 34.2 min · no final price

Leila Lacan · points 13.5 → 7 · 6.5 below the line · played 36.7 min · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 19.5 min · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.2 min · no final price

Kennedy Burke · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · no final price

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.1 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 18 · 2.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Charlisse Leger-Walker · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs CON · last 16 games · CON leads · PHO record 5–11 · average score 74.0–80.6 · PHO has lost by 6.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · PHO 72 at CON 75PHO lost

19 Jul · CON 63 at PHO 72PHO won

17 Jul · CON 96 at PHO 83PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds history (h2h)ok · 10 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 19 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 90 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 94 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 106 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 117 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 169 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 94 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 99 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 99 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 116 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.