WNBA · Finalupdated 15:34 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

LVA expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 182 points · odds to win: LVA 1.19, TOR 5.18

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 22:46 UTC

LVA 109 – TOR 83

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying TOR

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 26 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 24 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 11 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 18 actual

Toronto Tempoplaying LVA

Isabelle Harrison · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 26 actual

Julie Allemand · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Laura Juskaite · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Maria Conde · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 15 actual

Marina Mabrey · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 14 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:34 UTC

Who is out

Rice · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 21:00 UTC) · 31, 30 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 23 days off before this game · TOR had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 103 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Rice out (Wed 21:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

10 other players with a posted line

Isabelle Harrison · points 11.5 → 26 · 14.5 above the line · played 22.4 min · no final price

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.6 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 18 · 6.5 above the line · played 18.9 min · no final price

Jackie Young · points 16.5 → 24 · 7.5 above the line · played 32.8 min · no final price

Marina Mabrey · points 22.5 → 14 · 8.5 below the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 29 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 22.9 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 26.5 → 26 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs LVA · last 3 games · LVA leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 78.0–96.7 · TOR has lost by 18.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · TOR 73 at LVA 93TOR lost

23 Aug · LVA 88 at TOR 78TOR lost

20 Jul · LVA 109 at TOR 83TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 64 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 66 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 66 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 112 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 125 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 165 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 177 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 182 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 184 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 84 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 392 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.