WNBA · Finalupdated 14:35 UTC

New York Liberty vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

NYL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.79, DAL 2.04

Game odds from 12 bookmakers, Sun 14:27 UTC

NYL 99 – DAL 98

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

A. Fudd · Over 19.5 points + rebounds + assistsLostPosted at 2.02 · last price before start 1.82Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.02 · Our price was 5.5% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.89 by DraftKings (Mon 00:39 UTC); latest 2.03 at BetOnline.ag (Mon 23:47 UTC). The line moved from 21.5 to 22.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.4 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying DAL

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points + assists 23.5 → 41 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Dallas Wingsplaying NYL

Arike Ogunbowale · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 29 actual

Azzi Fudd · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 18 actual

Jessica Shepard · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 13 actual

Paige Bueckers · Out · n/a

points 22.5 → no final stat available

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 14:35 UTC

Who is out

Bueckers · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 10:40 UTC) · 38, 43 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 37, 43 and 36 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 23 days off before this game · DAL had 30 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 83 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Bueckers out (Thu 10:40 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.5% higher than the last before the start

Azzi Fudd · points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 42.7 min

Pick: Over 19.5 at 2.02 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

7 other players with a posted line

Arike Ogunbowale · points 13.5 → 29 · 15.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points + assists 23.5 → 41 · 17.5 above the line · played 42.3 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.8 min · no final price

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 25 min · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.1 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 22.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs NYL · last 16 games · NYL leads · DAL record 6–10 · average score 84.3–87.9 · DAL has lost by 3.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Jul · NYL 99 at DAL 98DAL lost

7 Jul · DAL 88 at NYL 77DAL won

24 May · DAL 91 at NYL 76DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 2, expected total 175.5 (Thu 01:15 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 1, expected total 177 (Thu 05:49 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Azzi Fudd · O 19.5 pra+102value_edge_pct +5.79 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Azzi Fudd Over 19.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +102 → close −122 · CLV +5.5¢ · bet_clv:154178 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-20T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 18 · 42.7 min · started

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 75 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 156 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 158 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 161 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 160 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 161 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 165 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 173 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 232 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 143 ms

odds player timeline (pa)failed 503 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 171 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 419 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 467 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 852 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 2861 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.