WNBA · Finalupdated 15:34 UTC

Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: CHI 3.79, NYL 1.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 21:45 UTC

CHI 94 – NYL 95

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying NYL

Azura Stevens · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 8 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 14 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 10 actual

Natasha Cloud · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Sydney Taylor · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 31 actual

New York Libertyplaying CHI

Breanna Stewart · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 20 actual

Jonquel Jones · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 14 actual

Pauline Astier · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 29 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:34 UTC

Who is out

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 37, 43 and 36 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 04:10 UTC) · 34, 28 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 38 days off before this game · NYL had 23 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 106 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Diggins out (Wed 04:10 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

9 other players with a posted line

Sydney Taylor · points 16.5 → 31 · 14.5 above the line · played 26.3 min · no final price

Courtney Vandersloot · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 21.6 min · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 29 · 12.5 above the line · played 35.1 min · no final price

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 8 · 3.5 below the line · played 30.4 min · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.7 min · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 32 min · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 20 · 1.5 below the line · played 36.7 min · no final price

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 21.8 min · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 14 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs CHI · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–9 · average score 83.9–82.5 · NYL has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · CHI 66 at NYL 85NYL won

18 Aug · NYL 86 at CHI 93NYL lost

22 Jul · CHI 94 at NYL 95NYL won

17 Jun · NYL 96 at CHI 95NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 9.5, expected total 179.5 (Tue 20:07 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 8, expected total 178.5 (Wed 21:45 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 19 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 90 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 99 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 117 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 167 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 56 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 98 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 370 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 832 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.