WNBA · Finalupdated 15:34 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

LVA expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: LVA 1.42, WAS 2.99

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:16 UTC

LVA 99 – WAS 100

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying WAS

A'ja Wilson · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 38 actual

Chelsea Gray · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 19 actual

Jackie Young · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 24 actual

Jewell Loyd · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 8 actual

NaLyssa Smith · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 4 actual

Washington Mysticsplaying LVA

Georgia Amoore · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 10 actual

Kiki Iriafen · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 12 actual

Lauren Betts · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 13 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Shakira Austin · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 25 actual

Sonia Citron · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 20 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:34 UTC

Who is out

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 23 days off before this game · WAS had 32 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 23 of the 108 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 0 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

11 other players with a posted line

Lauren Betts · points 5.5 → 13 · 7.5 above the line · played 19.9 min · no final price

Shakira Austin · points 14.5 → 25 · 10.5 above the line · played 29.1 min · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 19 · 7.5 above the line · played 37 min · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 4 · 6.5 below the line · played 22.5 min · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 23.5 → 38 · 14.5 above the line · played 34.8 min · no final price

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 22.7 min · no final price

Jackie Young · points 16.5 → 24 · 7.5 above the line · played 31.4 min · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.7 min · no final price

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.1 min · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 26 min · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 29 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs LVA · last 16 games · LVA leads · WAS record 7–9 · average score 81.3–84.6 · WAS has lost by 3.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 83WAS lost

11 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 86WAS lost

22 Jul · LVA 99 at WAS 100WAS won

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds history (h2h)ok · 8 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 15 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 148 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 150 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 160 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 163 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 182 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 99 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 266 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 138 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 412 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 230 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 233 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 232 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 234 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.