WNBA · Finalupdated 15:35 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

MIN expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 179 points · odds to win: MIN 1.20, SEA 4.90

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 17:43 UTC

MIN 86 – SEA 76

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

N. Howard · Over 7.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.14 · last price before start 1.72Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.14 · Our price was 11.3% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.85 by Pinnacle (Wed 17:43 UTC); latest 1.85 at Pinnacle (Wed 18:44 UTC). The 6.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying SEA

Courtney Williams · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 0 actual

Kayla McBride · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 20 actual

Napheesa Collier · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 24 actual

Natasha Howard · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 5 actual

Nia Brodie · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 7 actual

Olivia Miles · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 13 actual

Seattle Stormplaying MIN

Awa Fam · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Dominique Malonga · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 21 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 16 actual

Jade Melbourne · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 12 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 15:35 UTC

Who is out

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 33 days off before this game · SEA had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 27 of the 148 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Magbegor out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 11.3% higher than the last before the start

Natasha Howard · rebounds 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.3 min

Pick: Over 7.5 at 2.14 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

10 other players with a posted line

Courtney Williams · points 15.5 → 0 · 15.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 12.5 → 24 · 11.5 above the line · played 22.2 min · no final price

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · no final price

Nia Brodie · points 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 15.7 min · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 17.5 → 13 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 28.6 min · no final price

Natisha Hiedeman · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.2 min · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 36 min · no final price

Awa Fam · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs MIN · last 19 games · MIN leads · SEA record 8–11 · average score 85.6–84.2 · SEA has won by 1.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Jul · MIN 86 at SEA 76SEA lost

20 Jul · MIN 105 at SEA 102SEA lost

6 Jun · SEA 68 at MIN 88SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 9, expected total 178.5 (Tue 16:35 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 10.5, expected total 179 (Wed 17:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Natasha Howard · O 7.5 rebounds+114value_edge_pct +17.80 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Natasha Howard Over 7.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +114 → close −138 · CLV +11.3¢ · bet_clv:163289 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 26.3 min · started

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 27 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 90 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 97 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 107 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 7 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 142 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 231 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 257 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 269 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 322 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 468 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 582 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 940 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.