WNBA · Finalupdated 14:35 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

LAS expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 175.5 points · odds to win: PHO 1.99, LAS 1.86

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 17:43 UTC

PHO 86 – LAS 82

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

D. Hamby · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.98Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.65 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying LAS

Alyssa Thomas · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Kahleah Copper · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 21 actual

Natasha Mack · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 10 actual

Noemie Brochant · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 2 actual

Los Angeles Sparksplaying PHO

Ariel Atkins · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 15 actual

Cameron Brink · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Dearica Hamby · minutes unknown

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

Erica Wheeler · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 5 actual

Monique Akoa Makani · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 14 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · minutes unknown

points 17.5 → 13 actual

Rae Burrell · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 14:35 UTC

Who is out

Carter · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 16:30 UTC) · 12, 11 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 38 days off before this game · LAS had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 24 of the 143 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carter out (Wed 16:30 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.98 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked

Dearica Hamby · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.1 min

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Noemie Brochant · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 22.9 min · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 15.3 min · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points 10.5 → 5 · 5.5 below the line · played 26.3 min · no final price

Monique Akoa Makani · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 24 min · no final price

Ariel Atkins · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.1 min · no final price

Cameron Brink · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 33.6 min · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 35.6 min · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 17.5 → 13 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.3 min · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 21.5 → 21 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs PHO · last 20 games · PHO leads · LAS record 8–12 · average score 85.4–85.6 · LAS has lost by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

11 Aug · PHO 94 at LAS 87LAS lost

22 Jul · PHO 86 at LAS 82LAS lost

13 Jun · LAS 111 at PHO 102LAS won

21 May · LAS 97 at PHO 88LAS won

9 Sep · LAS 88 at PHO 83LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 178.5 (Tue 18:36 UTC) and later LAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 175.5 (Wed 17:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Dearica Hamby · O 2.5 assists−102value_edge_pct +6.38 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Dearica Hamby Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:162287 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.7% · actual 5 · 31.1 min · started

Nneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −188 · CLV +5.6¢ · bet_clv:162288 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 30.3 min · startedOgwumike operated in a low-assist role despite 30 minutes played, recording just 1 dime while turning the ball over 4 times; her 21% usage and heavy focus on scoring (13 points on 10 FG attempts) left little opportunity for playmaking.

Data fetches · 53

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 4 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 10 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 98 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 100 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 6 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 173 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 96 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 114 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 116 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 117 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 119 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 412 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 246 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 729 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.