WNBA · Finalupdated 12:40 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

WAS expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 161 points · odds to win: CON 2.97, WAS 1.43

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 22:08 UTC

CON 84 – WAS 92

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

A. Morrow · Under 8.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.03 · last price before start 1.80Won +1.03 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.03 · Our price was 6.3% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

S. Austin · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.95 · last price before start 1.57Won +0.95 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying WAS

Leila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Diamond Miller · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · 26 min expected

points 10.5 → 16 actual

Aneesah Morrow · 21 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 4 actual

Aaliyah Edwards · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Leger-Walker (28 expected minutes) · Burke (24 min) · +4 more

Washington Mysticsplaying CON

Shakira Austin · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Sonia Citron · 31 min expected

points 16.5 → 22 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Georgia Amoore · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: McMahon (18 expected minutes) · Betts (18 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 12:40 UTC

Who is out

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Kneepkens · did not play last game

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Rivers · likely to play · left ankle · CON

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Prosper, Florez) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Onyenwere: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 22.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 38 days off before this game · WAS had 32 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 77 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kneepkens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +1.98 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 9.3% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

Shakira Austin · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (31 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.95 → Won +0.95 per 1 staked

Aneesah Morrow · rebounds 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.9 min (21 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 2.03 → Won +1.03 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → 16 · 5.5 above the line · played 29.7 min (26 expected) · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (28 expected) · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (27 expected) · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 22 · 5.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (31 expected) · no final price

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 31 min (30 expected) · no final price

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.4 min (29 expected) · no final price

Georgia Amoore · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.2 min (25 expected) · no final price

Aaliyah Edwards · points 9.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs CON · last 19 games · CON leads · WAS record 6–13 · average score 77.1–78.7 · WAS has lost by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · CON 69 at WAS 79WAS won

28 Jul · CON 84 at WAS 92WAS won

26 Jun · WAS 57 at CON 68WAS lost

17 Jun · WAS 88 at CON 81WAS won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 5, expected total 156.5 (Mon 20:12 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 6, expected total 161 (Tue 22:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Aneesah Morrow · U 8.5 rebounds+103value_edge_pct +13.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Shakira Austin · U 2.5 assists−105value_edge_pct +7.43 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Aneesah Morrow Under 8.5 REBWIN +1.03ubet +103 → close −125 · CLV +6.3¢ · bet_clv:174689 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · actual 4 · 25.9 min · started

Shakira Austin Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.95ubet −105 → close −174 · CLV +12.3¢ · bet_clv:170780 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · actual 1 · 32.5 min · started

Data fetches · 48

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 10 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 90 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 101 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 112 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 162 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 142 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 226 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1446 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.