WNBA · Finalupdated 17:29 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

IND expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 187 points · odds to win: IND 1.28, SEA 3.86

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:09 UTC

IND 105 – SEA 95

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying SEA

Kelsey Mitchell · 31 min expected

points 21.5 → 28 actual

Caitlin Clark · 27 min expected

points 20.5 → 32 actual

Aliyah Boston · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 11 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Lexie Hull · 21 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Monique Billings · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 14 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Timpson (20 expected minutes) · Harris (20 min) · +1 more

Seattle Stormplaying IND

Awa Fam · 33 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 33 actual

Dominique Malonga · 28 min expected

points 17.5 → did not play, so no result

Jade Melbourne · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Zia Cooke · 15 min expected

points 7.5 → 10 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Horston (28 expected minutes) · Samuelson (20 min) · +1 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 17:29 UTC

Who is out

Out Magbegor · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 28, 22 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 2, 7 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 8, 2 and 22 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 2, 10 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Johnson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:30 UTC) · 19, 22 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Clark · likely to play · back · IND

May not play Malonga · back · SEA

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 5 players (Billings, Timpson, Harris, Malonga, Horston) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Fam: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 more than usual

Cooke: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 31 days off before this game · SEA had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 121 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Magbegor out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Johnson out (Tue 00:30 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Natisha Hiedeman · points 15.5 → 33 · 17.5 above the line · played 34.5 min (30 expected) · no final price

Lexie Hull · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 16.9 min (21 expected) · no final price

Monique Billings · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.9 min (20 expected) · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 20.5 → 32 · 11.5 above the line · played 33.3 min (27 expected) · no final price

Zia Cooke · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 15.2 min (15 expected) · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 21.5 → 28 · 6.5 above the line · played 34.7 min (31 expected) · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.9 min (24 expected) · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 10.6 min (25 expected) · no final price

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (30 expected) · no final price

Jade Melbourne · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.5 min (26 expected) · no final price

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.2 min (33 expected) · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 17.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs IND · last 16 games · IND leads · SEA record 7–9 · average score 84.7–83.6 · SEA has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · IND 105 at SEA 95SEA lost

17 Jul · SEA 107 at IND 110SEA lost

17 May · SEA 78 at IND 89SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 32 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 31 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 53 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 57 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 125 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 128 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 138 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 163 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 278 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 450 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 292 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 399 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 400 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 401 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 402 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 403 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 402 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.