WNBA · Finalupdated 17:29 UTC

New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

NYL expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 182.5 points · odds to win: NYL 1.51, LAS 2.65

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:39 UTC

NYL 113 – LAS 109

Final · 0 of 0 picks won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. Plum · Over 18.5 pointsWithdrawn: outPosted at 2.20 · last price before start 1.88Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.20 · Our price was 7.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying LAS

Breanna Stewart · 34 min expected

points 21.5 → 29 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 27 actual

Jonquel Jones · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 9 actual

Pauline Astier · 24 min expected

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (20 expected minutes) · Johannes (18 min) · +4 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying NYL

Ariel Atkins · 34 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Rae Burrell · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 24 actual

Erica Wheeler · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 17 actual

Dearica Hamby · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

Cameron Brink · 28 min expected

points 10.5 → 11 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Park (8 expected minutes) · Gray (6 min) · Williams (2 min)

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 17:29 UTC

Who is out

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 06:00 UTC) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Morgan · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 21, 18 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Laney-Hamilton · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 11, 13 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 37, 43 and 36 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

May not play Johannes · left ankle · NYL

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Stewart, Ionescu, Ogwumike, Burrell) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Wheeler: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 13.1 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 11.7 more than usual

Brink: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.9 in the last 5 games, about 5.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 23 days off before this game · LAS had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 9 of the 124 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Pili out (Sun 06:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cannon out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Plum out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Morgan out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Laney-Hamilton out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 0 lost · +0.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.8% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 24 · 9.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (32 expected) · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (31 expected) · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 18.5 → 27 · 8.5 above the line · played 35.5 min (34 expected) · no final price

Pauline Astier · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.9 min (24 expected) · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 9 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 29 · 7.5 above the line · played 37.1 min (34 expected) · no final price

Ariel Atkins · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (34 expected) · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.3 min (32 expected) · no final price

Dearica Hamby · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.7 min (29 expected) · no final price

Cameron Brink · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 19 min (28 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs NYL · last 16 games · NYL leads · LAS record 4–12 · average score 84.4–91.8 · LAS has lost by 7.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · LAS 81 at NYL 85LAS lost

28 Jul · NYL 113 at LAS 109LAS lost

21 Jun · NYL 97 at LAS 98LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kelsey Plum · O 18.5 points+120value_edge_pct +11.19 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 PTSVOID +0.00ubet +120 → close −114 · CLV +7.8¢ · bet_clv:169426 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.5% · actual 0

Data fetches · 49

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 67 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 69 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 106 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 152 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 154 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 173 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 126 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 172 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 179 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 193 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 246 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 548 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.