WNBA · Finalupdated 13:45 UTC

Portland Fire vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: POR 6.21, LVA 1.14

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:39 UTC

POR 83 – LVA 98

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

B. Carleton · Over 2.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 2.35 · last price before start 2.14Won +1.35 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.35 · Our price was 4.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.55 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying LVA

Bridget Carleton · 30 min expected

3-pointers 2.5 → 3 actual

Carla Leite · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

Megan DiLeo · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 20 actual

Emily Engstler · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 7 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Buhner (18 expected minutes) · Samuelson (18 min) · +5 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying POR

A'ja Wilson · 32 min expected

points 27.5 → 28 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Jackie Young · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 25 actual

Jewell Loyd · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 22 min expected

points 10.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (25 expected minutes) · Evans (20 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 13:45 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 5, 8 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Smith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 18 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 7 players (Puoch, Williams, Buhner, Samuelson, Wilson, Young, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 40 days off before this game · LVA had 23 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 114 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Smith out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.35 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.2% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

Bridget Carleton · 3-pointers 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.35 → Won +1.35 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 20 · 7.5 above the line · played 26.8 min (25 expected) · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 32.4 min (32 expected) · no final price

Jackie Young · points 17.5 → 25 · 7.5 above the line · played 28.3 min (32 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 21.6 min (30 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.8 min (24 expected) · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected) · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 27.5 → 28 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (32 expected) · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs POR · last 3 games · LVA leads · LVA record 3–0 · average score 97.0–84.0 · LVA has won by 13 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Jul · POR 83 at LVA 98LVA won

9 Jul · LVA 88 at POR 80LVA won

11 Jun · LVA 105 at POR 89LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Bridget Carleton · O 2.5 threes+135value_edge_pct +8.46 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PMWIN +1.35ubet +135 → close +114 · CLV +4.2¢ · bet_clv:177028 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-28T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.2% · actual 3 · 27.5 min · started

Data fetches · 45

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 90 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 110 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 114 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 114 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 120 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 163 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 228 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 231 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 231 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 246 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 251 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 271 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (threes)failed 503 · 131 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 241 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 337 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 344 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 353 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 358 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 373 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 653 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 411 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 421 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 422 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 425 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 426 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 432 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 444 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.