WNBA · Finalupdated 17:29 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 16.5 · both teams together expected to score about 186 points · odds to win: TOR 10.48, MIN 1.07

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 22:55 UTC

TOR 93 – MIN 100

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying MIN

Julie Allemand · 32 min expected

points 7.5 → 10 actual

Marina Mabrey · 32 min expected

points 20.5 → 25 actual

Laura Juskaite · 30 min expected

points 9.5 → 18 actual

Maria Conde · 30 min expected

points 9.5 → 20 actual

Isabelle Harrison · 22 min expected

points 11.5 → did not play, so no result

Kia Nurse · 17 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fagbenle (19 expected minutes) · Rice (18 min) · +3 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying TOR

Kayla McBride · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 18 actual

Olivia Miles · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 24 actual

Courtney Williams · 30 min expected

points 13.5 → 5 actual

Natasha Howard · 26 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

Napheesa Collier · 22 min expected

points 19.5 → 15 actual

Nia Brodie · 20 min expected

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Dorka Juhasz · 17 min expected

points 5.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Caldwell (15 expected minutes) · Delaere (2 min) · Joklova (2 min)

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 17:29 UTC

Who is out

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Pouye · did not play last game

May not play Harrison · left knee · TOR

May not play Rice · left ankle · TOR

May not play Sabally · rib cage · TOR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Conde, Juskaite, Delaere, Joklova) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Allemand: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 23.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 more than usual

Howard: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 27.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 38 days off before this game · MIN had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 109 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pouye out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

13 other players with a posted line

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 20 · 10.5 above the line · played 29.9 min (30 expected) · no final price

Nia Brodie · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (20 expected) · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 18 · 8.5 above the line · played 33.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Dorka Juhasz · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 14.6 min (17 expected) · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 13.5 → 5 · 8.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Kia Nurse · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 13.6 min (17 expected) · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 17.5 → 24 · 6.5 above the line · played 31.6 min (32 expected) · no final price

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 10 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.9 min (32 expected) · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 15 · 4.5 below the line · played 25 min (22 expected) · no final price

Marina Mabrey · points 20.5 → 25 · 4.5 above the line · played 31.7 min (32 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.7 min (26 expected) · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.6 min (32 expected) · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 11.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs TOR · last 3 games · MIN leads · MIN record 3–0 · average score 101.3–79.0 · MIN has won by 22.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Jul · MIN 104 at TOR 72MIN won

28 Jul · TOR 93 at MIN 100MIN won

21 May · TOR 72 at MIN 100MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 14.5, expected total 184 (Mon 18:42 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 16.5, expected total 186 (Tue 22:55 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds history (h2h)ok · 40 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 50 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 64 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 67 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 102 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 128 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 153 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 193 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 196 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 271 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 275 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 275 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 303 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 361 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 362 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 390 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 979 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.