WNBA · Finalupdated 10:53 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

No game odds posted yet

ATL 82 – DAL 81

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

N. Hillmon · Under 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.88 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 21 rostered players. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying DAL

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (33 expected minutes) · Canada (33 min) · +7 more

Dallas Wingsplaying ATL

12 players have no line from any bookmaker: Shepard (36 expected minutes) · Bueckers (35 min) · +10 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 10:53 UTC

Who is out

Out Smith · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 17, 24 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 25, 31 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

H. Jones (DAL) · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Siegrist · did not play last game

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Kone · did not play last game

May not play Paopao · earlier listed as out (changed 00:00 UTC) · 3, 2 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 6 players (Howard, Canada, Gray, Smith, Yueru, Sims) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 29 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 1 published pick uses separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Smith out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: H. Jones (DAL) out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Siegrist out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (00:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.88 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs ATL · last 18 games · ATL leads · DAL record 8–10 · average score 81.2–80.1 · DAL has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Jul · ATL 82 at DAL 81DAL lost

22 May · DAL 69 at ATL 86DAL lost

12 May · ATL 77 at DAL 72DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Naz Hillmon · U 4.5 rebounds−114value_edge_pct +8.19 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Naz Hillmon Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.88ubet −114 → close −114 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:182236 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 3 · 21.7 min · started

Data fetches · 19

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 119 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 134 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 147 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 178 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 179 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 187 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 187 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 188 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 21 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 264 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 118 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 640 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.