WNBA · Finalupdated 12:40 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

GSV expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 156 points · odds to win: GSV 1.56, PHO 2.50

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:45 UTC

GSV 89 – PHO 91

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

J. Salaun · Under 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.72Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.97 · Our price was 7.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.8 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying PHO

Kayla Thornton · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 6 actual

Veronica Burton · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 15 actual

Janelle Salaun · 25 min expected

points 11.5 → 13 actual

Kiah Stokes · 22 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 16 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 14 min expected

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Gabby Williams · 27 min expected · Out · na

points 14.5 → did not play, so no result

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Charles (27 expected minutes) · Hayes (26 min) · Amihere (10 min)

Phoenix Mercuryplaying GSV

Alyssa Thomas · 34 min expected

points 13.5 → 25 actual

Kahleah Copper · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 27 actual

DeWanna Bonner · 29 min expected

points 8.5 → 17 actual

Monique Akoa Makani · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Natasha Mack · 18 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Sami Whitcomb · 10 min expected

points 4.5 → 0 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Brochant (22 expected minutes) · Ayayi (15 min)

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 12:40 UTC

Who is out

Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 00:45 UTC) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Linskens · did not play last game

Suarez · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 15, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Ciezki · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Williams · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 35, 37 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

6 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 2 players (Burton, Thornton) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stokes: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 7.5 fewer than usual

Salaun: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 18.4 more than usual

Chen: expected to play 14 minutes, averaged 8.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.3 more than usual

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 15.1 in the last 5 games, about 13.9 more than usual

Mack: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 fewer than usual

Whitcomb: expected to play only 10 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game · PHO had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 118 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dunn out (Tue 00:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Linskens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Suarez out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Ciezki out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Williams out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.2% higher than the last before the start · checked Sat 15:52 UTC

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.8 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.97 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

12 other players with a posted line

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 6.5 → 16 · 9.5 above the line · played 22.9 min (20 expected) · no final price

DeWanna Bonner · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (29 expected) · no final price

Monique Akoa Makani · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 14.6 min (24 expected) · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.9 min (10 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 13.5 → 25 · 11.5 above the line · played 38.1 min (34 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 17.5 → 27 · 9.5 above the line · played 33.6 min (33 expected) · no final price

Kaitlyn Chen · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.1 min (14 expected) · no final price

Natasha Mack · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 18 min (18 expected) · no final price

Kayla Thornton · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.8 min (28 expected) · no final price

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 15 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (28 expected) · no final price

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.2 min (22 expected) · no final price

Gabby Williams · points 14.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs GSV · last 7 games · PHO leads · PHO record 5–2 · average score 84.9–84.0 · PHO has won by 0.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Jul · GSV 89 at PHO 91PHO won

9 Jun · PHO 81 at GSV 87PHO lost

10 May · PHO 79 at GSV 95PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 6, expected total 156.5 (Wed 00:39 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 4, expected total 156 (Thu 00:45 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Janelle Salaun · U 11.5 points−103value_edge_pct +6.97 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Janelle Salaun Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −138 · CLV +7.2¢ · bet_clv:180494 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 23.8 min · started

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 18 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 23 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 205 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 206 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 214 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 219 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 276 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 179 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 181 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 212 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 499 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 268 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 270 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 337 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 367 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1093 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.