WNBA · Finalupdated 04:33 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

CHI expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: CON 2.76, CHI 1.48

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 19:35 UTC

CON 88 – CHI 94

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying CHI

Leila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Charlisse Leger-Walker · 27 min expected

points 6.5 → 10 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 16 actual

Aneesah Morrow · 24 min expected

points 13.5 → 21 actual

Diamond Miller · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 14 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burke (24 expected minutes) · Rivers (21 min) · +3 more

Chicago Skyplaying CON

Natasha Cloud · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 26 actual

Sydney Taylor · 27 min expected

points 17.5 → 14 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · 21 min expected

points 7.5 → 6 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sheldon (21 expected minutes) · Jaquez (16 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Stevens · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 21, 20 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Banham · did not play last game

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Kneepkens · did not play last game

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Morrow, Miller, Burke, Williams, Carrington) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Cloud: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 9 days off before this game · CHI had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Stevens out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Banham out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kneepkens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

9 other players with a posted line

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 26 · 11.5 above the line · played 20.9 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Diamond Miller · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.5 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Aneesah Morrow · points 13.5 → 21 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.7 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 30 min (27 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 12.5 → 16 · 3.5 above the line · played 24.8 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Sydney Taylor · points 17.5 → 14 · 3.5 below the line · played 30.8 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Courtney Vandersloot · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.1 min (21 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Natasha Cloud · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.8 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.8 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.00

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs CON · last 25 games · CON leads · CHI record 11–14 · average score 79.0–82.7 · CHI has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · CHI 81 at CON 87CHI lost

30 Jul · CON 88 at CHI 94CHI won

22 Jun · CHI 63 at CON 92CHI lost

5 Jun · CON 80 at CHI 85CHI won

3 Sep · CON 64 at CHI 88CHI won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 3.5, expected total 174 (Thu 00:45 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 5, expected total 176.5 (Thu 19:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 21 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 25 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 27 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 27 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 35 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 41 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 18 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 160 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 336 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 535 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 559 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 607 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 608 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 787 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 795 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 794 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 804 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.