WNBA · Finalupdated 04:33 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

MIN expected to win by about 12 · both teams together expected to score about 185.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.15, TOR 6.06

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 19:35 UTC

MIN 104 – TOR 72

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Over 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.89 by DraftKings (Wed 17:42 UTC); latest 1.76 at DraftKings (Thu 23:37 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.50 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 9 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying TOR

Kayla McBride · 32 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Olivia Miles · 30 min expected

points 18.5 → 16 actual

Napheesa Collier · 28 min expected

points 19.5 → 16 actual

Courtney Williams · 25 min expected

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Natasha Howard · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coffey (20 expected minutes) · Juhasz (17 min) · +2 more

Toronto Tempoplaying MIN

Maria Conde · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 5 actual

Marina Mabrey · 29 min expected

points 21.5 → 16 actual

Julie Allemand · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Laura Juskaite · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 19 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sabally (23 expected minutes) · Harrison (20 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Harrison · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 19:30 UTC) · 23, 29 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Cechova · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 16:00 UTC) · 11, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Howard, Williams, Key, Pouye) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Conde: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 9 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 24 of the 117 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Fri 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cechova out (Sun 16:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.5 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

8 other players with a posted line

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 22.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.03

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 19 · 9.5 above the line · played 29.6 min (27 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.97, Under —

Maria Conde · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.6 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Courtney Williams · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 25 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Marina Mabrey · points 21.5 → 16 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 16 · 3.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs MIN · last 3 games · MIN leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 79.0–101.3 · TOR has lost by 22.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Jul · MIN 104 at TOR 72TOR lost

28 Jul · TOR 93 at MIN 100TOR lost

21 May · TOR 72 at MIN 100TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 12, expected total 186 (Thu 02:46 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 12, expected total 185.5 (Thu 19:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kayla McBride · O 2.5 rebounds−102value_edge_pct +5.97 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Kayla McBride Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:187617 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · unexplained · actual 0 · 24.5 min · started

Julie Allemand Over 0.5 3PMLOSS −1.00ubet −175 → close −225 · CLV +5.6¢ · bet_clv:187616 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 22.5 min · startedAllemand took only two three-point attempts in 22 minutes despite 6 assists, missing both from beyond the arc to fall short of the 0.5 line. Her 8% usage rate reflected limited offensive opportunities in a game where she functioned primarily as a facilitator rather than a scorer.

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 23 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 23 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 29 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 31 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 33 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 46 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 185 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 631 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 643 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 650 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 676 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 683 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 828 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.