WNBA · Finalupdated 04:33 UTC

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 182 points · odds to win: NYL 2.49, LVA 1.57

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 19:35 UTC

NYL 99 – LVA 104

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying LVA

Breanna Stewart · 34 min expected

points 20.5 → 26 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 18.5 → 15 actual

Jonquel Jones · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Pauline Astier · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 19 actual

Marine Johannes · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (24 expected minutes) · Fauthoux (23 min) · +3 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying NYL

A'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 33 actual

Jackie Young · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 29 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 16 actual

Jewell Loyd · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 23 min expected

points 10.5 → 7 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (18 expected minutes) · Talbot (17 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:33 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 15 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 2 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Laney-Hamilton · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 11, 13 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 29, 34 and 16 min in the last 3 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Wilson, Young) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Johannes: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 12.8 in the last 5 games, about 7.2 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 131 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Laney-Hamilton out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 19 · 10.5 above the line · played 21.5 min (22 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 8.4 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 29 · 10.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.94

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.7 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 19.1 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 33 · 7.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.9 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Breanna Stewart · points 20.5 → 26 · 5.5 above the line · played 37.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Sabrina Ionescu · points 18.5 → 15 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs NYL · last 25 games · NYL leads · LVA record 10–15 · average score 84.5–87.0 · LVA has lost by 2.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Aug · LVA 71 at NYL 111LVA lost

30 Jul · NYL 99 at LVA 104LVA won

30 Jun · LVA 85 at NYL 93LVA lost

23 Jun · NYL 87 at LVA 76LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.0 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.4% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.5 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.5% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 5, expected total 181 (Thu 01:46 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 4, expected total 182 (Thu 19:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 29 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 39 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 48 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 69 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 71 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 65 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 275 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 428 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 511 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 741 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 768 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 885 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1037 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 937 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1001 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1016 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.