WNBA · Finalupdated 03:32 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

DAL expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 166.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.66, WAS 2.29

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 19:41 UTC

DAL 75 – WAS 81

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying WAS

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 23 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Jessica Shepard · 32 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Azzi Fudd · 31 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

Awak Kuier · 18 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 1 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Smith (14 expected minutes) · Siegrist (12 min) · +5 more

Washington Mysticsplaying DAL

Sonia Citron · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 16 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 22 actual

Shakira Austin · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 28 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Georgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Lauren Betts · 14 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: McMahon (22 expected minutes) · Florez (7 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 03:32 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Shepard, Ogunbowale, Harmon, Olsen) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Kuier: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 9.0 fewer than usual

Onyenwere: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 more than usual

Betts: expected to play 14 minutes, averaged 20.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Shakira Austin · points 15.5 → 28 · 12.5 above the line · played 35.5 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Awak Kuier · rebounds 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 4.8 min (18 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.78, Under —

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 17.7 min (24 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 22 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.5 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89

Lauren Betts · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 17.1 min (14 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 33 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 32.8 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.2 min (28 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Paige Bueckers · points 20.5 → 23 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 16 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.6 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs DAL · last 16 games · WAS leads · WAS record 10–6 · average score 83.0–83.3 · WAS has lost by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · DAL 92 at WAS 96WAS won

31 Jul · DAL 75 at WAS 81WAS won

18 May · WAS 69 at DAL 92WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.7 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 2.5, expected total 169 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 3, expected total 166.5 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 16 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 29 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 37 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 428 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 436 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 437 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 446 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 693 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 708 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 711 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 764 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 770 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 808 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.