WNBA · Finalupdated 03:33 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

IND expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 187.5 points · odds to win: IND 1.31, POR 3.63

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 19:41 UTC

IND 112 – POR 98

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

B. Carleton · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.88 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.87 by DraftKings (Thu 16:03 UTC); latest 1.61 at BetOnline.ag (Sat 01:43 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.60 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

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Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying POR

Caitlin Clark · 31 min expected

assists 8.5 → 10 actual

Kelsey Mitchell · 31 min expected

points 22.5 → 26 actual

Aliyah Boston · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 21 min expected

points 9.5 → 13 actual

Monique Billings · 19 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hull (20 expected minutes) · Timpson (18 min) · +5 more

Portland Fireplaying IND

Bridget Carleton · 30 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

Carla Leite · 26 min expected

points 14.5 → 20 actual

Megan DiLeo · 25 min expected

points 13.5 → 5 actual

Emily Engstler · 21 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (21 expected minutes) · Buhner (18 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 03:33 UTC

Who is out

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Geiselsoder · did not play last game

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 8, 2 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Hines-Allen · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 20, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Clark, Mitchell, Buhner, Samuelson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Billings: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 9 of the 127 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Geiselsoder out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.88 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Bridget Carleton · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.5 min (30 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Megan DiLeo · points 13.5 → 5 · 8.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (25 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.7 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Sophie Cunningham · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.9 min (21 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Monique Billings · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.3 min (19 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Caitlin Clark · assists 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.66, Under 2.14

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 28 min (21 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Kelsey Mitchell · points 22.5 → 26 · 3.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.1 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs IND · last 3 games · IND leads · POR record 1–2 · average score 90.3–95.3 · POR has lost by 5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · IND 112 at POR 98POR lost

30 May · IND 84 at POR 100POR won

20 May · POR 73 at IND 90POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 8, expected total 188 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 8, expected total 187.5 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Bridget Carleton · U 2.5 assists−114value_edge_pct +5.60 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Bridget Carleton Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.88ubet −114 → close −114 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:192307 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.3% · actual 2 · 33.5 min · started

Data fetches · 44

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 7 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 7 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 26 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 29 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 21 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 27 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 30 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 56 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 64 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 600 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 688 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 794 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 810 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.