WNBA · Finalupdated 03:34 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180 points · odds to win: SEA 5.84, ATL 1.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 19:41 UTC

SEA 89 – ATL 98

Final · 4 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 4 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Hiedeman · Over 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.74 · last price before start 2.34Won +1.74 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.74 · Our price was 6.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.18 by BetOnline.ag (Thu 18:34 UTC); latest 1.72 at BetRivers (Fri 23:13 UTC). The line moved from 3.5 to 2.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.70 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Canada · Under 0.5 3-pointersWonPosted at 2.64 · last price before start 2.64Won +1.64 per 1 staked

J. Melbourne · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.32 · last price before start 1.98Won +1.32 per 1 staked

A. Fam · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 2.00Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying ATL

Awa Fam · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · 30 min expected

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Natisha Hiedeman · 30 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 5 actual

Dominique Malonga · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 16 actual

Jade Melbourne · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (15 expected minutes) · Horston (13 min) · +3 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying SEA

Allisha Gray · 35 min expected

points 19.5 → 16 actual

Rhyne Howard · 35 min expected

points 17.5 → 9 actual

Angel Reese · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 21 actual

Jordin Canada · 31 min expected

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

Brionna Jones · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 14 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hillmon (24 expected minutes) · Borlase (12 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 03:34 UTC

Who is out

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Okot · did not play last game

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 20:30 UTC) · 3, 4 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Holmes · did not play last game

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Magbegor, Dolson, Hillmon, Jones) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Fam: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 148 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okot out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sun 20:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 4 of 4 picks won4 won, 0 lost · +5.70 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 3.4% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Jordin Canada · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.4 min (31 expected)

Pick: Under 0.5 at 2.64 → Won +1.64 per 1 staked

Awa Fam · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Natisha Hiedeman · rebounds 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 3.5 at 2.74 → Won +1.74 per 1 staked

Jade Melbourne · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 2.32 → Won +1.32 per 1 staked

6 other players with a posted line

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 9 · 8.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 37.6 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.98

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.88

Brionna Jones · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 17 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 16 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.1 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Dominique Malonga · points 16.5 → 16 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.3 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.60

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs SEA · last 16 games · ATL leads · ATL record 8–8 · average score 81.3–80.1 · ATL has won by 1.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

31 Jul · SEA 89 at ATL 98ATL won

9 Jul · SEA 78 at ATL 89ATL won

27 Jun · ATL 90 at SEA 105ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.6% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 15.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.2−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 176.5 (Fri 03:08 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 180 (Fri 19:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Awa Fam · U 2.5 assists+100value_edge_pct +19.19 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Natisha Hiedeman · O 3.5 rebounds+174value_edge_pct +11.93 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Jordin Canada · U 0.5 threes+164value_edge_pct +11.26 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Jade Melbourne · O 8.5 points+132value_edge_pct +10.91 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 4

Jordin Canada Under 0.5 3PMWIN +1.64ubet +164 → close +164 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:190760 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.1% · actual 0 · 31.4 min · started

Jade Melbourne Over 8.5 PTSWIN +1.32ubet +132 → close −102 · CLV +7.4¢ · bet_clv:190759 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.8% · actual 9 · 25.3 min · started

Natisha Hiedeman Over 3.5 REBWIN +1.74ubet +174 → close +134 · CLV +6.2¢ · bet_clv:190761 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.8% · actual 5 · 33.8 min · started

Awa Fam Under 2.5 ASTWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close +100 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:190758 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.6% · actual 1 · 29.1 min · started

Data fetches · 47

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 297 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 312 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 317 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 324 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 347 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 423 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 431 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 444 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 453 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 460 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 467 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 496 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 816 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 431 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 442 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 646 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 650 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 725 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 788 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 810 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 816 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 837 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 849 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 859 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 885 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 915 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 949 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 958 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 965 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 1169 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1330 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1340 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1341 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1345 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1193 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1742 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1239 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1231 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.