WNBA · Finalupdated 08:39 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

LVA expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 184 points · odds to win: LVA 1.39, CHI 3.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 01:43 UTC

LVA 83 – CHI 84

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

C. Vandersloot · Over 15.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.02 · last price before start 1.77Won +1.02 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.02 · Our price was 7.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.95 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying CHI

A'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 27.5 → 36 actual

Jackie Young · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 18 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 5 actual

Jewell Loyd · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 23 min expected

points 10.5 → 17 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (18 expected minutes) · Talbot (13 min) · +2 more

Chicago Skyplaying LVA

Natasha Cloud · 32 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

Sydney Taylor · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 29 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 8 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · 23 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 20 actual

Elizabeth Williams · 15 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sheldon (21 expected minutes) · Carrington (17 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 08:39 UTC

Who is out

Out Stevens · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 21, 20 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 5, 8 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 2, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

5 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Bell, Evans) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Young: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Gray: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.1 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 fewer than usual

Cloud: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 more than usual

Taylor: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.1 in the last 5 games, about 6.9 more than usual

Williams: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 24.5 in the last 5 games, about 9.5 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 23 days off before this game · CHI had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 107 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Stevens out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.02 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Courtney Vandersloot · points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 20.3 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 15.5 at 2.02 → Won +1.02 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Sydney Taylor · points 16.5 → 29 · 12.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (29 expected) · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 24.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 31 min (23 expected) · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 5 · 7.5 below the line · played 34.4 min (32 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.10, Under —

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 8 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (25 expected) · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 27.5 → 36 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.5 min (33 expected) · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (32 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.15, Under —

Jackie Young · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 33 min (33 expected) · no final price

Elizabeth Williams · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.4 min (15 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs LVA · last 18 games · LVA leads · CHI record 3–15 · average score 80.3–90.3 · CHI has lost by 10.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Aug · LVA 83 at CHI 84CHI won

3 Jul · CHI 90 at LVA 98CHI lost

28 Jun · LVA 107 at CHI 99CHI lost

9 Sep · CHI 61 at LVA 92CHI lost

7 Sep · CHI 66 at LVA 80CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Courtney Vandersloot · O 15.5 pra+102value_edge_pct +7.89 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Courtney Vandersloot Over 15.5 PRAWIN +1.02ubet +102 → close −130 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:200336 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-01T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · actual 20 · 20.3 min · started

Data fetches · 48

sds history (h2h)ok · 40 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 155 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 160 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 177 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 182 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 191 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 97 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 103 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 367 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 3581 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 188 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 263 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 567 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 613 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.