WNBA · Finalupdated 10:05 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 10.5 · both teams together expected to score about 173 points · odds to win: CON 5.42, DAL 1.17

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:14 UTC

CON 63 – DAL 83

Final · 0 of 0 picks won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

B. Griner · Under 5.5 reboundsRefundedPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.87Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.93 · Our price was 1.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.3 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying DAL

Leila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Diamond Miller · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 22 actual

Brittney Griner · 26 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result

Charlisse Leger-Walker · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 0 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · 26 min expected

rebounds 7.5 → 11 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burke (24 expected minutes) · Rivers (23 min) · +6 more

Dallas Wingsplaying CON

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 21.5 → 6 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Jessica Shepard · 32 min expected

points 13.5 → 15 actual

Azzi Fudd · 31 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Kuier (18 expected minutes) · Smith (14 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 10:05 UTC

Who is out

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

May not play Griner · left knee · CON

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 5 players (Nelson-Ododa, Griner, Leger-Walker, Shepard, Ogunbowale) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 39 days off before this game · DAL had 31 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 74 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 0 lost · +0.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.8% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Brittney Griner · rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.93 → Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Diamond Miller · points 9.5 → 22 · 12.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (28 expected) · no final price

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 7.5 → 0 · 7.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (26 expected) · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 21.5 → 6 · 15.5 below the line · played 24.8 min (33 expected) · no final price

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 26.8 min (26 expected) · no final price

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 25 min (29 expected) · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.7 min (32 expected) · no final price

Azzi Fudd · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.4 min (31 expected) · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.7 min (32 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs CON · last 19 games · DAL leads · DAL record 10–9 · average score 83.1–82.7 · DAL has won by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Aug · CON 71 at DAL 97DAL won

2 Aug · CON 63 at DAL 83DAL won

2 Jul · DAL 86 at CON 83DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 11, expected total 170.5 (Sun 02:34 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 10.5, expected total 173 (Sun 21:14 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Brittney Griner · U 5.5 rebounds−107value_edge_pct +4.91 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Brittney Griner Under 5.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet −107 → close −115 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:212103 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.2% · actual 0

Data fetches · 45

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 52 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 71 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 83 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 119 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 149 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 292 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 295 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 465 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 375 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 393 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 4197 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 4200 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 4201 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 4200 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 4202 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 4202 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 4204 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 5837 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.