WNBA · Finalupdated 08:40 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

LAS expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 184.5 points · odds to win: LAS 1.81, POR 2.02

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 04:35 UTC

LAS 106 – POR 101

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, POR = Portland Fire.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

N. Ogwumike · Over 8.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.87 · last price before start 1.68Won +0.87 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.87 · Our price was 5.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.68 by Pinnacle (Sun 19:13 UTC); latest 1.68 at Pinnacle (Sun 19:13 UTC). The 8.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.55 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying POR

Ariel Atkins · 33 min expected

points 10.5 → 12 actual

Rae Burrell · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

rebounds 8.5 → 10 actual

Dearica Hamby · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 23 actual

Erica Wheeler · 29 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Cameron Brink · 20 min expected

points 11.5 → 7 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (13 expected minutes) · Park (8 min) · Williams (6 min)

Portland Fireplaying LAS

Bridget Carleton · 30 min expected

points 13.5 → 24 actual

Carla Leite · 26 min expected

points 15.5 → 21 actual

Megan DiLeo · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Emily Engstler · 21 min expected

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Frieda Buhner · 18 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (21 expected minutes) · Samuelson (18 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 08:40 UTC

Who is out

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 16, 23 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Geiselsoder · did not play last game

Out Feagin · earlier listed as available (changed Mon 23:30 UTC) · 6, 1 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 06:00 UTC) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

K. Williams (LAS) · did not play last game

Morgan · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 21, 18 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Hamby, Wheeler, Buhner, Samuelson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Atkins: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 10.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 38 days off before this game · POR had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Geiselsoder out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out (Mon 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pili out (Sun 06:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cannon out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Plum out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: K. Williams (LAS) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Morgan out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.87 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.9% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Nneka Ogwumike · rebounds 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.87 → Won +0.87 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → 24 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.4 min (30 expected) · no final price

Frieda Buhner · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 18.4 min (18 expected) · no final price

Dearica Hamby · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (29 expected) · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (29 expected) · no final price

Cameron Brink · points 11.5 → 7 · 4.5 below the line · played 20.6 min (20 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 26.6 min (26 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (25 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.6 min (21 expected) · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.7 min (32 expected) · no final price

Ariel Atkins · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.6 min (33 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs LAS · last 3 games · LAS leads · POR record 0–3 · average score 85.7–100.0 · POR has lost by 14.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · POR 84 at LAS 105POR lost

2 Aug · LAS 106 at POR 101POR lost

7 Jun · POR 72 at LAS 89POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LAS expected to win by 1, expected total 184.5 (Sun 02:34 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 04:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Nneka Ogwumike · O 8.5 rebounds−115value_edge_pct +5.37 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Nneka Ogwumike Over 8.5 REBWIN +0.87ubet −115 → close −146 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:204345 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-02T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.4% · actual 10 · 30.2 min · started

Data fetches · 51

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 53 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 79 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 82 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 161 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 166 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 195 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 217 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 253 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 482 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 579 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 882 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.