WNBA · Finalupdated 07:43 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

PHO expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 179.5 points · odds to win: PHO 1.78, CHI 2.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 23:37 UTC

PHO 106 – CHI 101

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying CHI

Alyssa Thomas · 36 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

Kahleah Copper · 34 min expected

points 22.5 → 31 actual

DeWanna Bonner · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 14 actual

Noemie Brochant · 23 min expected

points 4.5 → 2 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Ayayi (20 expected minutes) · Plum (19 min) · +5 more

Chicago Skyplaying PHO

Natasha Cloud · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 13 actual

Sydney Taylor · 28 min expected

points 17.5 → 14 actual

Kamilla Cardoso · 25 min expected

points 13.5 → 16 actual

Aicha Coulibaly · 22 min expected

points 5.5 → 6 actual

Courtney Vandersloot · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 16 actual

DiJonai Carrington · 19 min expected

points 9.5 → 16 actual

Elizabeth Williams · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sheldon (16 expected minutes) · Jaquez (10 min) · Banham (10 min)

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 07:43 UTC

Who is out

Out Stevens · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 21, 20 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 00:45 UTC) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Linskens · did not play last game

Suarez · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 15, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Ciezki · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

7 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Banham, Jaquez) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thomas: expected to play 36 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 15.1 in the last 5 games, about 14.9 more than usual

Brochant: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 28.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Coulibaly: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 15.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Cloud: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual

Taylor: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.1 in the last 5 games, about 5.9 more than usual

Williams: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 24.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 38 days off before this game · CHI had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 116 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Stevens out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dunn out (Tue 00:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Linskens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Suarez out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Ciezki out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Courtney Vandersloot · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 26.8 min (22 expected) · no final price

DiJonai Carrington · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 20.1 min (19 expected) · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.7 min (23 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 22.5 → 31 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.4 min (34 expected) · no final price

DeWanna Bonner · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 30.6 min (30 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.6 min (36 expected) · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 13 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.4 min (30 expected) · no final price

Elizabeth Williams · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.2 min (18 expected) · no final price

Sydney Taylor · points 17.5 → 14 · 3.5 below the line · played 16.9 min (28 expected) · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (25 expected) · no final price

Aicha Coulibaly · points 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 10.7 min (22 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.10

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs PHO · last 16 games · PHO leads · CHI record 6–10 · average score 80.6–83.8 · CHI has lost by 3.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

3 Aug · PHO 106 at CHI 101CHI lost

7 Jul · CHI 77 at PHO 66CHI won

15 May · CHI 83 at PHO 91CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 1, expected total 178.5 (Mon 02:46 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 1.5, expected total 179.5 (Mon 23:37 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 51

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 10 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 89 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 99 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 110 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 163 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 201 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 369 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 210 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 295 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 355 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 357 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 630 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 830 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.