WNBA · Finalupdated 07:43 UTC

Seattle Storm vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 7.5 · both teams together expected to score about 181.5 points · odds to win: SEA 3.56, NYL 1.32

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 21:36 UTC

SEA 83 – NYL 95

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

P. Astier · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.98Won +1.15 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15 · Our price was 4.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.00 by FanDuel (Mon 03:16 UTC); latest 1.98 at FanDuel (Mon 22:37 UTC). The 8.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.55 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

R. Allen · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.63Won +0.80 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying NYL

Natisha Hiedeman · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 17 actual

Awa Fam · 31 min expected

points 11.5 → 4 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 25 actual

Dominique Malonga · 26 min expected

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Jade Melbourne · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Magbegor (14 expected minutes) · Horston (14 min) · +5 more

New York Libertyplaying SEA

Breanna Stewart · 35 min expected

points 21.5 → 24 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 18 actual

Jonquel Jones · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 20 actual

Pauline Astier · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Rebecca Allen · 22 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 5 actual

Marine Johannes · 15 min expected

points 7.5 → 6 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Xu (16 expected minutes) · Fauthoux (15 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 07:43 UTC

Who is out

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Laney-Hamilton · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 11, 13 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 37, 43 and 36 min in the last 3 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Holmes · did not play last game

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Thierry, Holmes, Johannes, Fauthoux) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Johnson: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 32.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

Fam: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Jones: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 33.1 in the last 5 games, about 5.1 fewer than usual

Allen: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 9.0 in the last 5 games, about 13.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 39 days off before this game · NYL had 23 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Laney-Hamilton out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

5 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +1.95 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.8% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 07:52 UTC

Rebecca Allen · rebounds 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 26 min (22 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.80 → Won +0.80 per 1 staked

Pauline Astier · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 22.8 min (22 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 2.15 → Won +1.15 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 25 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (27 expected) · no final price

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 19.8 min (31 expected) · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (28 expected) · no final price

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (26 expected) · no final price

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 11.7 min (15 expected) · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 28 min (26 expected) · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 24 · 2.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (35 expected) · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 19.5 → 18 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.4 min (34 expected) · no final price

Natisha Hiedeman · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.7 min (32 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs SEA · last 16 games · NYL leads · NYL record 10–6 · average score 80.9–80.3 · NYL has won by 0.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · SEA 86 at NYL 92NYL won

3 Aug · SEA 83 at NYL 95NYL won

25 Jun · NYL 88 at SEA 99NYL lost

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 8.5, expected total 180.5 (Mon 02:46 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 181.5 (Mon 21:36 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Pauline Astier · O 8.5 points+115value_edge_pct +7.04 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Rebecca Allen · O 2.5 rebounds−125value_edge_pct +3.87 · kelly 1.20u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Pauline Astier Over 8.5 PTSWIN +1.15ubet +115 → close −102 · CLV +4.0¢ · bet_clv:232929 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-03T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · actual 12 · 22.8 min · started

Rebecca Allen Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −158 · CLV +5.7¢ · bet_clv:232930 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-03T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.7% · actual 5 · 26.0 min · started

Data fetches · 51

sds history (h2h)ok · 37 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 55 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 61 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 152 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 150 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 181 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 216 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 143 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 235 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 264 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 269 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 293 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 294 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 485 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 586 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1095 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.