WNBA · Finalupdated 23:41 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

GSV expected to win by about 11.5 · both teams together expected to score about 169 points · odds to win: TOR 5.93, GSV 1.15

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:45 UTC

TOR 81 – GSV 92

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Rice · Over 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.88Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.77 · Our price was 3.3% lower than the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 1.88, 15 min ago

First offered at 2.05 by Pinnacle (Tue 20:13 UTC); latest 2.00 at Pinnacle (Wed 01:45 UTC). The line moved from 10.5 to 9.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

L. Juskaite · Over 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 2.10Won +0.76 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 2 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying GSV

Laura Juskaite · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

Maria Conde · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 17 actual

Julie Allemand · 25 min expected

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Kiki Rice · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 2 actual

Marina Mabrey · 25 min expected

points 16.5 → 12 actual

Nyara Sabally · 20 min expected

points 10.5 → 21 actual

Isabelle Harrison · 15 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Morrow (15 expected minutes) · Fagbenle (10 min) · +2 more

Golden State Valkyriesplaying TOR

Veronica Burton · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

Kayla Thornton · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 20 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Gabby Williams · 20 min expected

points 14.5 → 10 actual

Janelle Salaun · 20 min expected

points 12.5 → 21 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Kiah Stokes · 20 min expected

points 4.5 → 7 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Charles (20 expected minutes) · Hayes (20 min) · Amihere (8 min)

What could go wrong

updated 23:41 UTC

Who is out

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Nurse · did not play last game

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Fagbenle · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 17:15 UTC) · 20, 26 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 10 players (Allemand, Mabrey, Rice, Stokes, Williams, Zandalasini, Salaun, Chen, Charles, Hayes) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Conde: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 more than usual

Harrison: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 30 of the 130 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nurse out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fagbenle out (Tue 17:15 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.24 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.3% lower than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

Kiki Rice · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 22.9 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.76 → Won +0.76 per 1 staked

12 other players with a posted line

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 20 · 11.5 above the line · played 28.3 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.94

Maria Conde · points 8.5 → 17 · 8.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Nyara Sabally · points 10.5 → 21 · 10.5 above the line · played 31.7 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Kaitlyn Chen · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 7.5 min (20 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 21 · 8.5 above the line · played 20.5 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Isabelle Harrison · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (15 expected) · no final price

Kiah Stokes · points 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (20 expected) · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.9 min (20 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.35, Under —

Gabby Williams · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.7 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Marina Mabrey · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 35.4 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Julie Allemand · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs TOR · last 3 games · GSV leads · GSV record 3–0 · average score 90.3–78.3 · GSV has won by 12 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

4 Aug · TOR 81 at GSV 92GSV won

2 Aug · TOR 79 at GSV 96GSV won

8 Jul · GSV 83 at TOR 75GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.2+7.2 vs average

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 13, expected total 168 (Tue 01:38 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 11.5, expected total 169 (Wed 00:45 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Laura Juskaite · O 9.5 points−132value_edge_pct −4.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kiki Rice · O 9.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

Maria Conde Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.65ubet −155 → close −129 · CLV −4.5¢ · bet_clv:236236 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 6 · 30.1 min · startedConde secured 6 rebounds in 30 minutes despite modest usage, hitting 71% TS and staying out of foul trouble (1 PF) to consistently get back on the glass and comfortably clear the 3.5 line.

Laura Juskaite Over 9.5 PTSWIN +0.76ubet −132 → close +110 · CLV −9.3¢ · bet_clv:236233 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 11 · 25.1 min · startedJuskaite's perfect 4-for-4 from the free-throw line and efficient 63% true shooting pushed her past the 9.5 total despite shooting just 3-7 from the field, as 25 minutes of playing time gave her enough volume to cash the over.

Kiah Stokes Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −164 · bet_clv:236238 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · unexplained · actual 7 · 27.2 min · started

Julie Allemand Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −143 → close −148 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:236235 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 30.5 min · startedAllemand played 30 minutes but grabbed only 1 rebound despite solid offensive efficiency (70% TS), suggesting limited box-out opportunities or a mismatch in positioning against the opponent's frontcourt. Her assist-heavy role (8 ast) and 8% usage rate indicate she operated primarily as a facilitator rather than a rebounder, making the over 2.5 threshold difficult to hit.

Kiki Rice Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −114 · CLV −3.3¢ · bet_clv:236237 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.1% · bad_price · actual 2 · 22.9 min · startedRice shot 0-for-3 from the field and made only her free throws, finishing 2-for-6 overall (33% FG) despite playing 23 minutes—a brutal efficiency collapse that left her 7.5 points short of the over. Five personal fouls also limited her aggressiveness and touched the floor time's value.

Laura Juskaite Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close −172 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:236234 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-04T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.9% · actual 3 · 25.1 min · startedJuskaite's limited 25 minutes and modest usage rate (21%) kept her rebound opportunities scarce, and she grabbed just 3 boards despite efficient shooting. The under hit comfortably as her bench role restricted the volume needed to reach 4.5 rebounds.

Data fetches · 53

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 110 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 125 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 134 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 172 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 192 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 200 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 134 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 335 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 369 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 371 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 635 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 62 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 64 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 408 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 456 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 460 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 483 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 490 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 494 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 498 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 502 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 535 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1194 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 862 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 867 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 872 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 932 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 933 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1073 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.