WNBA · Finalupdated 05:35 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

DAL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 167.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.78, WAS 2.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 22:08 UTC

DAL 92 – WAS 96

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying WAS

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 15 actual

Azzi Fudd · 32 min expected

points 13.5 → 9 actual

Jessica Shepard · 32 min expected

points 13.5 → 22 actual

Alanna Smith · 16 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 11 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Yueru (15 expected minutes) · Kuier (12 min) · +5 more

Washington Mysticsplaying DAL

Sonia Citron · 34 min expected

points 16.5 → 12 actual

Shakira Austin · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 27 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

Cotie McMahon · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 18 actual

Georgia Amoore · 23 min expected

assists 3.5 → 5 actual

Lauren Betts · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 6 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Prosper (6 expected minutes) · Florez (5 min) · Dugalic (2 min)

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 05:35 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 25, 31 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Siegrist · did not play last game

Sutton · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Shepard, Ogunbowale, Fudd, Amoore, McMahon) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Onyenwere: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 22.0 in the last 5 games, about 8.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 30 days off before this game · WAS had 32 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 111 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Siegrist out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sutton out · did not play

4 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Fri 23:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Alanna Smith · rebounds 3.5 → 11 · 7.5 above the line · played 32 min (16 expected) · no final price

Cotie McMahon · points 6.5 → 18 · 11.5 above the line · played 26.5 min (23 expected) · no final price

Shakira Austin · points 16.5 → 27 · 10.5 above the line · played 36.1 min (32 expected) · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 22 · 8.5 above the line · played 36.5 min (32 expected) · no final price

Georgia Amoore · assists 3.5 → 5 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.5 min (23 expected) · no final price

Azzi Fudd · points 13.5 → 9 · 4.5 below the line · played 34.5 min (32 expected) · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 25 min (29 expected) · no final price

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 12 · 4.5 below the line · played 36.5 min (34 expected) · no final price

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.6 min (30 expected) · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.1 min (33 expected) · no final price

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.9 min (16 expected) · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.2 min (32 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs DAL · last 16 games · WAS leads · WAS record 10–6 · average score 83.0–83.3 · WAS has lost by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Aug · DAL 92 at WAS 96WAS won

31 Jul · DAL 75 at WAS 81WAS won

18 May · WAS 69 at DAL 92WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds history (h2h)ok · 32 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 40 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 94 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 93 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 99 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 111 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 116 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 86 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 230 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 158 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 437 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 342 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 344 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 364 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 380 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 383 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 384 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 432 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.