WNBA · Finalupdated 02:21 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

No game odds posted yet

LAS 89 – MIN 82

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

C. Brink · Over 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.04 · last price before start 2.06Won +1.04 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.04 · Our price was 0.5% lower than the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

6 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 6 players has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying MIN

Rae Burrell · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 17 actual

Dearica Hamby · 31 min expected

points 15.5 → 16 actual

Ariel Atkins · 29 min expected

points 10.5 → 7 actual

Nneka Ogwumike · 29 min expected

points 18.5 → 16 actual

Erica Wheeler · 26 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Cameron Brink · 18 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Makani (15 expected minutes) · Park (13 min) · +3 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying LAS

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: McBride (30 expected minutes) · Collier (30 min) · +7 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 02:21 UTC

Who is out

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Pili · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sun 06:00 UTC) · 16, 6 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Cannon · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 13, 13 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

K. Williams (LAS) · did not play last game

Morgan · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 21, 18 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Cannon, Williams, Miles, Collier, McBride) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Hamby: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 24.9 in the last 5 games, about 6.1 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 8.1 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 44 days off before this game · MIN had 39 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 56 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pili out (Sun 06:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cannon out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: K. Williams (LAS) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Morgan out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 0 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.04 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.5% lower than the last before the start · checked Sun 01:52 UTC

Cameron Brink · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (18 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift

Pick: Over 9.5 at 2.04 → Won +1.04 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Ariel Atkins · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.8 min (29 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.6 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.2 min (29 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Dearica Hamby · points 15.5 → 16 · 0.5 above the line · played 24.7 min (31 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (32 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs LAS · last 18 games · MIN leads · MIN record 15–3 · average score 83.4–76.0 · MIN has won by 7.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

6 Aug · LAS 89 at MIN 82MIN lost

15 Jul · LAS 87 at MIN 96MIN won

17 Jun · MIN 99 at LAS 83MIN won

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Cameron Brink · O 9.5 points+104value_edge_pct +10.72 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Cameron Brink Over 9.5 PTSWIN +1.04ubet +104 → close +106 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:251828 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-06T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · actual 12 · 25.1 min · started

Data fetches · 35

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 36 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 37 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 41 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 41 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 44 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 48 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 52 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 116 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 97 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 92 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 96 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 106 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 108 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.