WNBA · Finalupdated 02:21 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 191 points · odds to win: LVA 2.00, IND 1.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 21:45 UTC

LVA 86 – IND 84

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, IND = Indiana Fever.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying IND

A'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 27.5 → 26 actual

Jackie Young · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 22 actual

Chelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

Jewell Loyd · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

NaLyssa Smith · 26 min expected

points 11.5 → 14 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (17 expected minutes) · Evans (15 min) · +2 more

Indiana Feverplaying LVA

Kelsey Mitchell · 34 min expected

points 24.5 → 28 actual

Caitlin Clark · 33 min expected

points 21.5 → 20 actual

Aliyah Boston · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 21 actual

Monique Billings · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Timpson (20 expected minutes) · Hull (16 min) · +3 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 02:21 UTC

Who is out

Hall · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 14, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Dantas · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 8, 2 and 22 min in the last 3 games

VanSlooten · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 2, 10 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Onyiah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 12 and 1 min in the last 2 games

Hines-Allen · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 21:45 UTC) · 20, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Johnson · did not play last game

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 5, 8 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 2, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Smith, Loyd) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Young: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 38.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Gray: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.1 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 fewer than usual

Billings: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 12.2 in the last 5 games, about 14.8 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 29 days off before this game · IND had 37 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 128 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hall out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dantas out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hines-Allen out (Sun 21:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Johnson out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sat 23:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Sophie Cunningham · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 28.1 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 37.6 min (30 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 37.3 min (26 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 22 · 3.5 above the line · played 35 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 24.5 → 28 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.1 min (34 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 40.4 min (32 expected) · Way Off Outlier · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 21.5 → 20 · 1.5 below the line · played 38.4 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · High-Leverage / OT Extension · no final price

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Monique Billings · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.7 min (27 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

A'ja Wilson · points 27.5 → 26 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.5 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs LVA · last 24 games · LVA leads · IND record 7–17 · average score 82.0–86.0 · IND has lost by 4.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

1 Oct · IND 83 at LVA 94IND lost

29 Sep · LVA 89 at IND 99IND won

27 Sep · IND 85 at LVA 102IND lost

6 Aug · LVA 86 at IND 84IND lost

12 Jul · IND 109 at LVA 75IND won

5 Jul · IND 84 at LVA 68IND won

30 Sep · IND 98 at LVA 107IND lost

28 Sep · LVA 83 at IND 90IND won

26 Sep · LVA 84 at IND 72IND lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 47

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 17 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 22 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 22 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 24 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 24 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 26 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 32 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 202 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 203 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 226 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 253 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 257 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 277 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 311 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.