WNBA · Finalupdated 05:28 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

POR expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 187 points · odds to win: TOR 2.19, POR 1.72

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:47 UTC

TOR 83 – POR 97

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, POR = Portland Fire.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying POR

Marina Mabrey · 32 min expected

points 19.5 → 9 actual

Julie Allemand · 30 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Laura Juskaite · 30 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

Maria Conde · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 6 actual

Nyara Sabally · 27 min expected

points 13.5 → 17 actual

Kiki Rice · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Aneesah Morrow · 16 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Harrison (8 expected minutes) · Nurse (2 min) · Fagbenle (2 min)

Portland Fireplaying TOR

Bridget Carleton · 31 min expected

points 15.5 → 10 actual

Carla Leite · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 27 actual

Megan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 15.5 → 17 actual

Emily Engstler · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Frieda Buhner · 19 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (21 expected minutes) · Samuelson (20 min) · +2 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 05:28 UTC

Who is out

Geiselsoder · did not play last game

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Out Oblak · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 11 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 19, 20 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 3 players (Conde, Juskaite, Allemand) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rice: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 38 days off before this game · POR had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 115 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Geiselsoder out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Feagin out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Oblak out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Carla Leite · points 17.5 → 27 · 9.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Marina Mabrey · points 19.5 → 9 · 10.5 below the line · played 22 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Maria Conde · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Kiki Rice · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.6 min (23 expected) · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 29.6 min (31 expected) · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.3 min (30 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.4 min (25 expected) · no final price

Nyara Sabally · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.9 min (27 expected) · no final price

Frieda Buhner · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 15.7 min (19 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Aneesah Morrow · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.6 min (16 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs TOR · last 3 games · POR leads · POR record 2–1 · average score 91.7–81.7 · POR has won by 10 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Aug · POR 79 at TOR 82POR lost

6 Aug · TOR 83 at POR 97POR won

23 May · POR 99 at TOR 80POR won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had POR expected to win by 2.5, expected total 188.5 (Thu 03:40 UTC) and later POR expected to win by 2.5, expected total 187 (Fri 00:47 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 54

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 99 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 104 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 106 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 107 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 108 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 116 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 206 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 208 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 282 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 168 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 170 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 173 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 176 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 177 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 180 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 182 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 204 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 895 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 801 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.