WNBA · Finalupdated 01:13 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

ATL expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 170 points · odds to win: ATL 1.45, WAS 2.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:12 UTC

ATL 74 – WAS 79

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying WAS

Angel Reese · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 7 actual

Rhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

Allisha Gray · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 26 actual

Jordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 9 actual

Naz Hillmon · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Brionna Jones · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 4 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (14 expected minutes) · Sherrod (8 min) · +4 more

Washington Mysticsplaying ATL

Sonia Citron · 35 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

Shakira Austin · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 21 actual

Kiki Iriafen · 27 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

Michaela Onyenwere · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Cotie McMahon · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Georgia Amoore · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Lauren Betts · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Prosper (6 expected minutes) · Florez (4 min) · Dugalic (2 min)

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 01:13 UTC

Who is out

Dugalic · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Kone · did not play last game

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 2 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Okot, Kone, Nye, Walker-Kimbrough, Amoore, McMahon) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Hillmon: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 31.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL had 11 days off before this game · WAS had 42 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 126 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

13 other players with a posted line

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.90

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.2 min (24 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Brionna Jones · points 9.5 → 4 · 5.5 below the line · played 21.5 min (20 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 7 · 8.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 17.5 → 26 · 8.5 above the line · played 37.7 min (31 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Cotie McMahon · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (24 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 20 min (26 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Foul Trouble / Early Exit · no final price

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.1 min (18 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 21 · 3.5 above the line · played 27 min (34 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (35 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.77

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (31 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.1 min (33 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.8 min (27 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs ATL · last 21 games · ATL leads · WAS record 10–11 · average score 80.1–81.1 · WAS has lost by 1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Sep · ATL 93 at WAS 75WAS lost

27 Sep · WAS 77 at ATL 92WAS lost

7 Aug · ATL 74 at WAS 79WAS won

2 Jul · ATL 76 at WAS 81WAS won

6 Jun · WAS 77 at ATL 109WAS lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 170.5 (Fri 01:47 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 6, expected total 170 (Fri 22:12 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 21 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 28 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 28 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 29 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 30 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 32 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 33 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 8 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 155 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 170 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 171 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 179 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 182 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 183 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 221 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.