WNBA · Finalupdated 01:13 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 160.5 points · odds to win: GSV 2.05, DAL 1.82

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 00:13 UTC

GSV 94 – DAL 76

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

Veronica Burton · 30 min expected

points 11.5 → 22 actual

Kayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

Kiah Stokes · 24 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

Janelle Salaun · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

Gabby Williams · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 19 actual

Cecilia Zandalasini · 19 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 10 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hayes (22 expected minutes) · Charles (18 min) · Amihere (7 min)

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

Jessica Shepard · 33 min expected

points 13.5 → 6 actual

Paige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

Arike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 14.5 → 5 actual

Alanna Smith · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Azzi Fudd · 32 min expected · Out · right knee

points 12.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sims (21 expected minutes) · Siegrist (20 min) · +6 more

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 01:13 UTC

Who is out

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 25, 31 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Verona · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6 min in the last game

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 4 players (Williams, Hayes, Kuier, Sutton) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stokes: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 16.4 more than usual

Chen: expected to play only 10 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV had 11 days off before this game · DAL had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 119 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Verona out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 01:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Veronica Burton · points 11.5 → 22 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (30 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Kaitlyn Chen · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.6 min (10 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Arike Ogunbowale · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 26.7 min (32 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.75

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 6 · 7.5 below the line · played 25.8 min (33 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Alanna Smith · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 19 · 5.5 above the line · played 21.9 min (22 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.77

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · no final price

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 26 min (24 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.5 min (19 expected) · Super Close Lock · Lineup & Game Script Held · no final price

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (23 expected) · Way Off Outlier · Tactical Rotation Shift · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (33 expected) · Within Calibrated Band · Normal Rotation Variance · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.79

Azzi Fudd · points 12.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs GSV · last 10 games · GSV leads · DAL record 2–8 · average score 80.4–87.5 · DAL has lost by 7.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

2 Oct · DAL 73 at GSV 77DAL lost

30 Sep · GSV 100 at DAL 108DAL won

27 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 104DAL lost

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78DAL lost

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76DAL lost

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91DAL lost

4 Sep · DAL 80 at GSV 84DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 163.5 (Fri 04:18 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 1.5, expected total 160.5 (Sat 00:13 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 25 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 30 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 30 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 31 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 33 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 34 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 35 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 39 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 20 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 124 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 170 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 179 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 178 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 181 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 190 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 204 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 219 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 839 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.