WNBA · Finalupdated 02:39 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

PHO expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 173 points · odds to win: PHO 1.45, CON 2.86

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 22:12 UTC

PHO 72 – CON 75

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. Plum · Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 1.78Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.00 · Our price was 6.1% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.45 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 7 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying CON

Alyssa Thomas · 36 min expected

points 15.5 → 10 actual

Kahleah Copper · 34 min expected

points 20.5 → 16 actual

DeWanna Bonner · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 6 actual

Kelsey Plum · 28 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 24.5 → 28 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Brochant (23 expected minutes) · Ayayi (16 min) · +2 more

Connecticut Sunplaying PHO

Leila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · 27 min expected

points 12.5 → 7 actual

Diamond Miller · 26 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Leger-Walker (26 expected minutes) · Burke (26 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 02:39 UTC

Who is out

Jackson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 26, 15 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Kneepkens · did not play last game

Beers · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 29, 24 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Dunn · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 00:45 UTC) · 17, 11 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Held · did not play last game

Suarez · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 15, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Ciezki · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 19, 15 and 21 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 3 players (Leger-Walker, Miller, Burke) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thomas: expected to play 36 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 15.1 in the last 5 games, about 15.9 more than usual

Plum: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 22.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.3 more than usual

Nelson-Ododa: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 21.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 38 days off before this game · CON had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 72 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jackson out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kneepkens out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Beers out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dunn out (Tue 00:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Held out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Suarez out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Ciezki out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.1% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

Kelsey Plum · points + rebounds + assists 24.5 → 28 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.8 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 24.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

6 other players with a posted line

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 16.1 min (27 expected) · no final price

DeWanna Bonner · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 34.5 min (31 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 10 · 5.5 below the line · played 35.3 min (36 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.79

Leila Lacan · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.1 min (29 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 16 · 4.5 below the line · played 34 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.12

Diamond Miller · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.6 min (26 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs PHO · last 16 games · CON leads · CON record 11–5 · average score 80.6–74.0 · CON has won by 6.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

7 Aug · PHO 72 at CON 75CON won

19 Jul · CON 63 at PHO 72CON lost

17 Jul · CON 96 at PHO 83CON won

6 Sep · PHO 84 at CON 87CON won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had PHO expected to win by 6, expected total 172.5 (Fri 02:47 UTC) and later PHO expected to win by 5, expected total 173 (Fri 22:12 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kelsey Plum · O 24.5 pra+100value_edge_pct +5.85 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Kelsey Plum Over 24.5 PRAWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −128 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:256639 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-07T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · actual 28 · 27.8 min · started

Data fetches · 39

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 91 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 109 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 111 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 85 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 97 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 449 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 803 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 1032 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 97 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 99 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 100 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 108 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 130 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 581 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 648 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.