WNBA · Finalupdated 01:45 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 4.5 · both teams together expected to score about 181.5 points · odds to win: LVA 2.55, MIN 1.55

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 15:43 UTC

LVA 87 – MIN 98

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. McBride · Over 16.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start 1.91Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15 · Our price was 5.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.7 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

1 player checked · 0 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 1 player has performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying MIN

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Wilson (33 expected minutes) · Gray (33 min) · +7 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying LVA

Kayla McBride · 32 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 19 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Collier (28 expected minutes) · Miles (28 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 01:45 UTC

Who is out

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Joklova · did not play last game

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 5, 8 and 12 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 2, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 1, 21 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Yamamoto · did not play last game

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 5 players (Wilson, Young, Gray, Howard, Williams) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA had 23 days off before this game · MIN had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 6 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Joklova out · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yamamoto out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 5.9% higher than the last before the start · checked Mon 17:52 UTC

1 other player with a posted line

Kayla McBride · points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 19 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.3 min (32 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs LVA · last 19 games · LVA leads · MIN record 9–10 · average score 87.1–84.6 · MIN has won by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Aug · MIN 92 at LVA 87MIN won

8 Aug · LVA 87 at MIN 98MIN won

13 Jun · MIN 97 at LVA 100MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up85.8 points · 34.0 rebounds · 18.6 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.2% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 13.0 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 85.8 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 4.5, expected total 183 (Sat 00:43 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 4.5, expected total 181.5 (Sat 15:43 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kayla McBride · O 16.5 points+115value_edge_pct +7.78 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Kayla McBride Over 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +115 → close −110 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:261665 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-08T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 15 · 35.3 min · startedMcBride fell one point short despite playing 35 minutes and getting solid volume (4-12 FG, 4-8 3PT), ultimately held back by inconsistent shot-making that left her at just 56% TS when she needed to stay efficient to clear 16.5.

Data fetches · 22

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 16 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 19 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 92 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 116 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 117 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 85 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 276 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 112 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 423 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 822 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.